Twins vs Mets Prediction: Joe Ryan Faces a Struggling Kodai Senga at Citi Field

The Minnesota Twins visit Citi Field in Queens on Thursday night at 7:10 p.m. ET to face the New York Mets in the finale of their three-game series, and the pitching matchup is one of the most lopsided on the day’s schedule. Joe Ryan takes the ball for Minnesota against Kodai Senga, the Mets’ returning right-hander who has been one of the more difficult stories of early 2026. This series has been played in a tight, low-scoring format, and the closing game figures to follow the same pattern given who is pitching for the Twins.

Minnesota stands at 12-12, a .500 team that has been better than their record suggests in many individual matchups. The Twins have scored 5.09 runs per game this season, which ranks among the league’s better offenses, and they are led by Byron Buxton’s five-tool production and Josh Bell’s consistent middle-of-the-order presence. New York has been struggling, sitting at 8-16 — one of the worst records in the National League — and is coming off a 0-5 stretch that had the fan base questioning whether this high-payroll roster would ever find its footing. The Mets are 0-5 in their last five games entering Thursday.

Minnesota Comes in as a Slight Favorite With Real Reason

The Twins are installed as -118 to -120 moneyline favorites, with the Mets receiving +100 to -101 on the home side. The over/under is 7.5 runs, a low total that reflects the pitching matchup advantage Minnesota carries. Minnesota is -1.5 on the run line at around +145 to +146, with New York at +1.5 priced around -175 to -178.

The market pricing is interesting. The Mets, despite their poor record and being at home, are essentially even-money underdogs. The reason is the pitching: Kodai Senga has been significantly worse than expected in 2026 through his early starts, while Joe Ryan brings a 3.29 ERA and a 0.878 WHIP that makes him one of the more reliable starters in the Twins’ rotation. The market has essentially decided that the pitcher on the mound matters more than home-field advantage in this game, which is the right call.

Senga Struggles While Ryan Controls Contact

Kodai Senga’s 2026 season has been challenging. After returning from injury, he has allowed 23 hits and 18 earned runs in 17.1 innings, posting a 8.83 ERA and opposing batting average of .319. The stuff is still present, but command and consistency have been inconsistent, and a Twins lineup that scores at a 5.09 clip is exactly the type of unit that can make a struggling starter pay for mistakes.

Joe Ryan, by contrast, brings excellent control — his 0.878 WHIP ranks among the better starters in the American League — and he averages 9.22 strikeouts per nine innings. The matchup of Ryan against a Mets lineup hitting .200/.239/.289 over their last 11 games is structurally favorable to the Twins. Ryan’s team is 1-2 when he starts as the moneyline favorite this season, but the odds movement and pitching quality make Minnesota the logical side here.

The head-to-head history between these franchises is modest, with the Twins winning most recent meetings. Josh Bell leads Minnesota with a .430 slugging percentage, and Byron Buxton’s power potential means any mistake in the strike zone carries real risk. Francisco Alvarez has been the Mets’ most consistent offensive contributor with a .500 slugging percentage and four home runs, and he represents the primary threat against Ryan’s approach. Juan Soto is hitting .355 with a .412 on-base percentage and remains a lineup presence that can change innings despite the team’s overall struggles.

Prediction and Best Bet

The Mets have quality offensive players, and a return to Citi Field gives them a chance to snap their losing streak. But the pitching matchup strongly favors Minnesota, and a team that has been losing five straight at home does not suddenly transform its fortunes in the series finale against a quality starter.

• Prediction: Minnesota Twins 4, New York Mets 2
• Best Bet: Twins moneyline (-118)

Backing Joe Ryan against a struggling Mets offense and an inconsistent Senga on the other side at just -118 is a reasonable price for the edge this matchup provides. Minnesota’s offense is capable of scoring enough to win a lower-scoring game, and Ryan’s command gives the Twins control over the tempo that suits their style.