Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati hosts the start of a three-game series Monday night as the New York Mets travel to take on the Cincinnati Reds with first pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Both clubs are sitting below .500 and looking to build some momentum in what has been a frustrating first half, but the pitching matchup alone makes this game worth watching. Chase Burns has been one of the most dominant starters in the National League this season, and the young right-hander takes the mound at home against a Mets team that has struggled to generate offense consistently on the road.
The Mets are 32-39 overall and 14-21 away from home, sitting fifth in the NL East. New York has the talent to compete but has been unable to stay consistent, and the road numbers reflect that. The Reds are 33-37 and 17-18 at Great American Ball Park, sitting fifth in the NL Central. Cincinnati has surprised observers throughout the season with a rotation that has outperformed expectations despite an offense that has not always supplied enough support. Tonight sets up as a game defined largely by what Burns does in the first five or six innings.
Burns Sets the Market, Reds Move as Heavy Favorites
The betting market opened with Cincinnati as the favorite, and the line has stayed firm throughout the day. The Reds are priced at -134 to -143 on the moneyline, while the Mets check in at +116 to +119. The run line has Cincinnati at -1.5 (+149 to +158) and New York at +1.5 (-181 to -185). The over/under is set at 8.0, with the over at -114 and the under at -105 to -118 depending on the book. Public betting has leaned 64 percent toward the Reds, which makes sense given Burns is on the mound. Understanding the types of bets available — moneyline, run line, totals, and props — is helpful when navigating a game shaped so heavily by one elite pitcher.
Chase Burns has been an absolute revelation this season. The 23-year-old right-hander sits at 7-1 with a 2.14 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP across 75.2 innings. He has struck out 88 batters against just 23 walks, and his command has been exceptional throughout the year. The numbers look even better when broken down by opponent handedness — Burns carries a 33.1 percent strikeout rate against left-handed batters for his career, and the Mets project to run out six left-handed hitters in their lineup tonight. He is the clear best pitcher in this game and one of the more exciting young arms in the sport. The player prop search tool lists Burns strikeout markets at over 7.5 K at +120, which reflects how highly the market rates his ability to miss bats. If you want to calculate potential returns on a Burns prop or the moneyline, the payout calculator is a useful starting point.
Soto and the Mets Face an Uphill Climb
Tobias Myers gets the start for New York and carries a 0-1 record and a 4.05 ERA into this outing. He has been active primarily as a reliever this season, accumulating just 33.1 innings pitched with a 1.08 WHIP, 26 strikeouts, and 7 walks. The underlying numbers are not awful, but pitching against a Cincinnati lineup at home presents a genuine challenge. Myers will need to limit traffic early, particularly against the Reds' right-handed power bats, if New York is going to keep this game close.
The Mets do have genuine offensive talent, even if the team batting average of .230 does not inspire confidence. Juan Soto continues to be one of the most productive hitters in the National League, hitting .293 with a .387 on-base percentage and .561 slugging percentage. He has added 15 home runs and 34 RBI, and his plate discipline — particularly his ability to work counts and draw walks — tends to keep the offense alive even when others in the lineup are quiet. Bo Bichette is contributing 40 RBI and 8 home runs at third base, giving the Mets a secondary run-producer who can make something happen with men on base.
The Reds counter with a lineup that has shown more balance despite ranking near the bottom of the league in batting average at .229. Elly De La Cruz is one of the most physically gifted players in baseball, and the shortstop is having a quality season at .280 with a .346 on-base percentage and .509 slugging percentage. His combination of speed and raw power makes him a threat in any at-bat, and he has been particularly productive at Great American Ball Park. Sal Stewart has been a steady presence at first base with 13 home runs and 42 RBI while batting .247. With Burns on the mound holding the Mets down, Cincinnati's lineup does not need to produce a huge total — they just need to score three or four runs, which is well within reach against Myers.
New York's road struggles are not a minor concern here. The Mets are 14-21 away from Citi Field, and the team ERA on the road sits at elevated levels relative to their home performance. That road weakness is compounded by the fact that Cincinnati just won two of three at home against the Mets less than three weeks ago — including a 7-2 win on May 26 and a 7-2 win on May 25. New York won the series finale 4-2 on May 27, but the overall trend in this head-to-head matchup favors the home team at Great American Ball Park.
The MLB betting guide addresses how to evaluate matchups where a dominant starter skews the expected run total significantly. Burns fitting this profile means the total of 8.0 is set lower than a typical Reds home game, reflecting the market's respect for his ability to suppress offense. The MLB odds page tracks all the current lines if you want to compare this game against others on tonight's slate.
Late-Game Angles and Betting Context
One factor worth noting is that the Reds have been just 11-9 in 20 games as the moneyline favorite this season and won 42.9 percent of games as an underdog. The Mets, meanwhile, have gone just 5-13 (.278) as road underdogs. That context matters: the Reds being favored at home with Burns on the mound is exactly the kind of spot their roster is built to cash in on. Even with an offense that ranks near the bottom of the NL in average, the combination of home-field advantage, a dominant pitcher, and an opponent that struggles on the road represents a convergence of favorable variables. For those who enjoy adding a second leg to build a same-game ticket, the DraftKings platform offers competitive props markets for Burns and the Reds' lineup. Tracking the line at kickoff for any movement is always worthwhile in cases where the public money is concentrated on one side.
Prediction and Best Bet
Chase Burns is one of the best stories in baseball in 2026, and tonight the stage is set perfectly for another dominant performance. The Mets come in with a struggling offense, a road record that is well below league average, and a starting pitcher making only his second major-league start. Cincinnati at home with Burns on the bump is a situation the Reds have cashed in on repeatedly throughout the first half, and there is no compelling reason to fade that setup tonight.
- Prediction: Cincinnati Reds 4, New York Mets 1
- Best Bet: Cincinnati Reds -1.5 run line (+149)
The run line offers more value than the flat moneyline in this matchup. If Burns is working efficiently and holding the Mets to one run or fewer — which he is capable of doing against a lineup that strikes out at a high rate — Cincinnati wins by two or more runs. The Reds' lineup should be able to score at least four against Myers at home, and Burns gives them every opportunity to do exactly that.
