The Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks wrap up their three-game series at Chase Field in Phoenix on Thursday night, with first pitch set for 9:40 p.m. ET. The Dodgers arrive on a tremendous roll, sitting at 40-22 on the season and winners of 15 of their last 19 games, including a dominant 7-0 shutout win Wednesday night in which Shohei Ohtani threw six scoreless innings. Arizona, at 32-29, is trying to stay relevant in the NL West race but has been unable to slow down a Dodgers machine that simply has too many weapons.
This is a series finale matchup with legitimate star power involved — Justin Wrobleski, one of the breakout pitching stories of the first half, takes the ball for Los Angeles against Ryne Nelson, who has been inconsistent for a Diamondbacks club that desperately needs a strong performance from their starter to keep this game competitive.
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks Odds: LA Installed as Heavy Favorites at Chase Field
The Dodgers opened as -149 moneyline favorites and that number has moved slightly to around -142 to -150 depending on the book. Arizona sits at approximately +117 to +119. The run line has LA at -1.5 (+112 to +111) and Arizona +1.5 at -135. The total is set at 9.5, with the over at -105 and the under at -112 to -115.
These odds make complete sense given the pitching mismatch and the Dodgers' recent form. Track the latest lines at our MLB odds page. What is interesting is the total — 9.5 is a high number, reflecting Arizona's ability to score at home and concerns about Nelson's ability to keep the Dodgers in check. The slight lean toward the under suggests oddsmakers believe Wrobleski can do his job even if Nelson struggles. There may be a touch of value on the Dodgers run line at +112, as LA has been blowing teams out of late rather than eking out close wins.
Wrobleski vs. Nelson: A Tale of Two Pitchers Having Very Different Seasons
Justin Wrobleski is having one of the best first halves by a young Dodgers pitcher in recent memory. The 25-year-old left-hander carries a 7-2 record and 2.87 ERA into Thursday's start, with a 1.01 WHIP across 62.2 innings. Opponents are hitting just .210 against him, and he is limiting walks — only 14 in more than 62 innings — which is a hallmark of a pitcher who has figured out how to attack hitters without nibbling. He has been one of the quieter stars in an LA rotation that also includes Ohtani, who has looked dominant as a two-way weapon. Wrobleski has earned the ball in this spot, and his numbers against Arizona this season have been solid.
Ryne Nelson, meanwhile, is working through a rough stretch. He is 2-4 on the season with a 4.82 ERA and 1.19 WHIP across 65.1 innings, having surrendered 15 home runs — an alarming rate when you consider the Dodgers lineup is loaded with power hitters. Kyle Tucker has been in a cold stretch lately, hitting just .235 on the season, but Shohei Ohtani continues to be among the most dangerous hitters in the National League with a .293 average, 10 home runs, and .927 OPS. Freddie Freeman has also been on a hot streak, and the combination of those three at the top of the order is a nightmare for any pitcher who leaves mistakes up in the zone.
The Dodgers' offense has scored 37 runs in their last nine games, and the 7-0 demolition job the night before gives them an entirely rested and loose mental approach heading into Game 3. The Diamondbacks are going to need extraordinary production from their lineup — led by Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll, who have been their most consistent performers — to generate enough offense against Wrobleski to make this a game.
Arizona does have a plus split at Chase Field this season, sitting at 19-12 at home. But the Dodgers are 20-11 on the road, which neutralizes that advantage to a large degree. The Diamondbacks offense has the weapons to score, but against a pitcher allowing a sub-three ERA with precision command, they will need timely hitting rather than volume.
From a head-to-head perspective this season, the Dodgers swept the Diamondbacks in the first game of this series and have now won two straight in the set. Los Angeles swept Arizona in their first series of the year back in late March, so Nelson and his teammates are well aware that the Dodgers are capable of running the table against them.
Prediction and Best Bet
The pitching matchup alone makes this one relatively straightforward. Wrobleski has been outstanding and should give the Dodgers length, while Nelson's home run problem becomes exponentially more dangerous against a lineup that hits for power throughout the order. LA's recent form — 15 wins in their last 19 games — is not a hot streak built on smoke and mirrors. It reflects a team playing its best baseball of the season.
- Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers 6, Arizona Diamondbacks 2
- Best Bet: Dodgers run line -1.5 (+112)
At +112, the Dodgers run line provides real value for a team that has been blowing opponents out. You get plus money on a team that is -142 on the moneyline, which is a significant edge. Wrobleski's ability to go deep into games should keep the bullpen fresh, and the Dodgers' offense hitting in full stride against a pitcher with a 4.82 ERA and home run issues is a recipe for a comfortable win rather than a one-run grind.
