Can Sam Houston State get by Western Kentucky on Wednesday night?
We are BACK with another College Football best bets article for a midweek clash between Western Kentucky and Sam Houston State! We crushed our last article going 3 for 4, and I am looking to cash this one out as well!
This is a primetime game at 7 pm on ESPN2 and we have a good matchup on deck. Sam Houston is looking for revenge after dropping this game in Bowling Green last season, 28-23.
This team is 5-1 for a reason, and while their strength of schedule is 109th in the country, their strength of record sits at 39th, behind a 42nd-ranked defensive efficiency and a 73 ranked offensive efficiency, all three ranking higher than Western Kentucky through 6 games.
Time of possession matters a lot in football and Sam Houston is flat-out one of the best in the country on both sides of the ball. They rank top 15, actually 13th on both sides of the ball. On offense, they control 59% of the time of possession and on defense, they allow the opponents to control only 44% of the time. I believe that, along with timely conversions will be the difference in this close ball game.
I do not see a blowout in this game as both teams are closely matched, and while Western Kentucky likes and is good at passing the ball, Sam Houston is one of the best-rushing teams in the nation, which bodes well for the game script if they can control time of possession.
Conversion Rates in Football Matter
Conversions should be another story in this game, once we look back and check box scores. On paper, Sam Houston wins every category on offense. They are ranked 43rd in the country with a 43% 3rd down conversion rate, while Western Kentucky sits at 106th, only converting 34% of 3rd downs.
On Defense, the same holds true, Sam Houston is ranked 36th allowing a very good 35% 3rd down conversion rate. While Western Kentucky is ranked 132 allowing an insane 55% 3rd down conversion rate.
Sam Houston also ranks higher on 4th down conversion rates, and a big factor is they rank 63rd in the country, cashing in on 85% of their red zone trips while Western Kentucky converts only 77%, which is good for a 103rd ranking.
My Best Bet:
Sam Houston -2.5 (-115)
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Top Flight Wagers has several years of experience in the sports betting industry and currently operates their own handicapping business. They're successful in all sports but specializes in UFC and Golf for EatWatchBet. Find them on X @TopFlightWagers
