Can Tucker Gleason get Toledo by Akron on Tuesday?
Week 14 of college football is upon us, and we get 2 games to kick off the week! As the season continues to wind down, we have teams continuing to jockey for finishing positions within their conferences, and nationally.
I love the numbers we are getting in this Toledo at Akron matchup and that's where we will head for tonight's pick! Happy Thanksgiving, folks!
Getting Line Value?
Tonight's MACtion play is Toledo (7-4) against Akron (3-8). Toledo has already secured a bowl game and is looking to finish their season on a winning note. I do believe we are getting some value on this line, based on last week's performances. We know the books like to react to what has happened recently.
Last week Akron won their 3rd game of the season, beating the worst team in the MAC Kent State, by 21 points. On the flip side, Toledo is coming off losing the nationally televised game at home against Ohio, and laid an egg, losing 24-7. Not only was that loss embarrassing, but it also knocked them out of a chance at the conference title game.
If Toledo had beaten Ohio, at home, and Akron lost to Kent State on the road, I do believe this line would be closer to 10. Akron has failed to cover this line in 6 of their 9 games and I do think Toledo can win by 8-10, if not more in this game.
Toledo Is Just Better
The matchups comparisons are always something I like to look at first before taking a deeper dive. Toledo has outscored Akron by 82 points on the season, Toledo has 12 net touchdowns vs their opponents, compared to Akron's -22, and Akron has -843 net yards vs their opponents to Toledo's +31.
Toledo’s strength of victory ranks 63rd in the country compared to Akron's 133rd. Defense travels and Toledo ranks 35th in the country allowing just 21 points a game. Akron ranks 116th on defense allowing 34 points a game. Akron could also struggle to score as they average 20 points per game compared to Toledo's 28 per game.
Toledo has the advantage passing the ball, ranking 48th in the nation with 242 passing yards per game. Akron allows 250 passing yards per game and Toledo should be able to exploit them down the field. I expect Toledo to find enough stops to give their offense enough attempts to break this game open.
My Best Bet: Toledo -7.5 (-120) FanDuel
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Top Flight Wagers has several years of experience in the sports betting industry and currently operates their own handicapping business. They're successful in all sports but specializes in UFC and Golf for EatWatchBet. Find them on X @TopFlightWagers
