The final first-round contest of the NCAA College Football Playoffs will feature two of the game’s biggest brands when the No. 9 ranked Tennessee Volunteers (10-2) travel north to face the No. 8 ranked Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) on Saturday night.
Tennessee is playing in the college football playoffs for the first time in the program’s history. The Volunteers made the tournament by closing out their season with a pair of victories over UTEP and Vanderbilt. Tennessee’s most impressive win came at home against Alabama in October.
Ohio State had aspirations of earning a bye and berth in the Big Ten Championship game until their rivals from up north – the Michigan Wolverines – earned a 13-10 victory in the regular season finale. Now, the Buckeyes will look to build on their impressive showing throughout 2024 by winning their opening-round game.
Will the Buckeyes earn their fourth victory in the college football playoffs in their sixth appearance, or will the Volunteers win their debut in the CFP? We’ll cover that and our three best player prop bets for Saturday’s game.
Tennessee Volunteers QB Nico Iamaleava UNDER 180.5 Passing Yards
Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava has been impressive in his freshman season for the Volunteers, recording 2,512 passing yards, 19 touchdowns, and five interceptions to lead his team this season. He’s also done damage to opponents on the ground, running for 311 yards and another score on 89 carries in 2024.
Ohio State is the second-best defense against the pass in college football this season, holding opponents to under 145 yards per outing. For that reason alone, you should take the under on this player prop bet despite Iamaleava notching back-to-back 200-yard passing games for the Vols. Read on for the other reason you should take the under on this prop bet.
Ohio State Buckeyes WR Jeremiah Smith UNDER 69.5 Receiving Yards
Ohio State has one of the best freshmen in the country in wide receiver Jeremiah Smith. The 6-foot-3 pass-catcher logged 57 receptions, a team-best 934 receiving yards, and 10 touchdowns in 2024.
The Vols defense is one of the stingiest against the pass in the country. Tennessee allowed only 178 passing yards per contest, yielding only nine passing touchdowns in 12 games this season. It’s a big reason why the Volunteers defense allowed less than 14 points per game in 2024.
Although Tennessee hasn’t seen a player as dynamic as Smith this season, expect the Volunteers to keep Ohio State quarterback Will Howard occupied with their strong defensive front and keep him from finding easy completions to Smith. That’s why bettors should not expect the talented athlete to cover this player prop bet.
Tennessee Volunteers RB Dylan Sampson OVER 92.5 Rushing Yards
Tennessee junior running back Dylan Sampson had one of the best seasons in Volunteers history in 2024. On the ground, Sampson recorded 1,485 yards and 22 touchdowns on 256 carries while he also caught 19 passes for 141 yards in the passing attack. His 22 rushing touchdowns were the fourth-best total for any player this year.
Michigan’s game plan showed how susceptible the Buckeyes are to a solid running attack. The Wolverines posted 172 yards on 42 carries, averaging over four yards per rush. Expect Tennessee to spread the field and run the football, making Sampson a strong bet to exceed this player prop rushing mark.
Best Bet: OVER 46.5 Points
Outside of Michigan’s victory over the Buckeyes, Ohio State has scored at least 20 points in every other game in 2024. Tennessee has been impressive offensively, scoring at least 20 points in all but two contests this season. Combined, these two teams should light up the scoreboard on Saturday night for at least 47 points.
The hook on the point spread between these two teams is why I would recommend not taking the Buckeyes as Ohio State is favored by 7.5 points. This game should come down to the wire and picking the Buckeyes to win by more than a touchdown is a hard line to take when questions about the team’s motivation are already being asked.
