The biggest game this weekend will take place inside Autzen Stadium as the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (5-0) face their biggest challenge to date against the host No. 3 Oregon Ducks (5-0) at 7:30 p.m. EST.
Ohio State has dominated everyone to start the year. The Buckeyes have won every game by at least 28 points, defeating three mid-major teams along with two Big Ten rivals – Michigan State and Iowa – en route to this huge matchup.
Oregon’s path hasn’t been nearly as smooth. The Ducks hung on to beat a pesky Boise State bunch earlier this season before decimating Oregon State, UCLA, and Michigan State by a combined 77 points.
Which team will take over the driver’s seat in the Big Ten with a victory? We’ll cover that as well as top three player prop bets when Ohio State faces off against Oregon in Saturday’s primetime matchup.
Ohio State Buckeyes QB Will Howard OVER 20.5 Rushing Yards
It’s not often that we offer play prop bets and don’t suggest at least one for passing yards, but that’s what you get when you watch these two teams play. With mobile quarterbacks who can beat teams with their feet as well as their arms, it’s hard to suggest where they’ll finish the afternoon.
The best bet between the two running quarterbacks is Ohio State’s Will Howard. At Kansas State, Howard logged 351 rushing yards and surpassed this player prop mark seven times in 12 games.
This season, the 6-foot-4 senior has done his damage through the air, but he also logged 28 rushing yards in his team’s 35-7 victory over Iowa. With Oregon having a stingy passing defense, expect Howard to pick up crucial first downs with his feet and cover this prop bet.
Oregon Ducks RB Jordan James UNDER 76.5 Rushing Yards
The Buckeyes defense has allowed just 72.6 rushing yards per game to its first five opponents. But it’s not faced a running back like Oregon’s Jordan James this season. The 5-foot-10 junior has rushed for 552 yards and five touchdowns in his first five games.
James is an elite running back who should be a future NFL athlete. Last week, Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson eclipsed the 76.5 rushing yard mark, but the Buckeyes sold out on defense to stop Cade McNamara’s passing attack. Expect the Ducks to sell out on the running game this week and force Dillon Gabriel to beat them through the air, keeping him from covering this prop bet.
Ohio State Buckeyes WR Jeremiah Smith OVER 69.5 Receiving Yards
Ohio State has found a star in 17-year-old freshman wide receiver Jeremiah Smith. The 6-foot-3 athlete has logged five straight games with at least 70 receiving yards and one score in the Buckeyes’ unblemished start to the season.
Against Oregon, it’s hard to see that changing. His athleticism and great hands make him a target no matter where the Buckeyes are on the field, giving him the best chance to exceed the 69.5-yard mark needed to cover this player prop bet.
Best Bet: Oregon (+3.5)
Ohio State is clearly the better team on paper. There’s no doubt about how talented this roster is or this team’s chances of winning the national championship in January. But that’s also not showing their opponents enough respect.
Here’s another telling statistic: Big Ten road teams are 1-8 heading into the week when traveling more than two time zones to play in games. The Buckeyes will be doing just that, and they’re facing one of the best teams in the nation.
It’s hard to call for an upset when Ohio State is this good. I’m not ready to go there. But there’s more of a chance in my mind this is a close game that potentially exceeds the 54.5 over/under for total points. I expect this game to be close throughout the evening.
