We are BACK with another College Football Friday best bet for you guys! We have cashed our last 2 Friday night picks and are looking to get our 3rd straight. I love the look we have for you tonight and we have 4 games on the slate to choose from!
All 4 games are very interesting, and we have 2 ranked teams involved in two of them, (25) UNLV and (6) Oregon. We are going to look at the Oregon and Michigan State game for our pick of the night. Sparty travels out West in a big showdown after they were trampled by Ohio State last week 38-7.
| Saturday, September 26 at 7:00 PM | Spread | Money | Total |
| Oregon Ducks |  +1.5 (-118) |  +102 | O 61.5 (-110) |
| USC Trojans | -1.5 (-112) | -114 | U 60.5 (-110) |
Look Ahead Spots Alone Set the Tone
The more I have wagered on college football in my career, the more I try to look for spots like this. This doesn’t ring true all the time, but more often than not, it can help give you insight into the possible mindset of a team. Oregon faces (3) Ohio State next week, while Michigan State has a bye.
24 points is a lot of points for a team that doesn’t need a blowout win, they just need to get out alive. My expectation on this game is with Michigan State coming off of that embarrassing loss, and with a bye looming, they will lay it all out on the field, looking for an upset win.
This could be a trap spot where they catch Oregon sleeping at the wheel before Ohio State. I do not think that will happen, but I do think Oregon gets up 14 to 24 points, and then starts to call off the dogs.
Their goal is to win and get to Ohio State unbeaten. Most likely Oregon does not want a ton of plays on film for Ohio State to pick apart either so they should tamper it back and continue to use what they already have in previous weeks.
Michigan State Defense Could Keep Them in This
I expect a lot of Michigan State defense tonight. The one thing that has been killing Michigan State is turnovers, and if they can clean that up in the slightest bit tonight, they have hope of keeping it close!
Diving into the numbers, Michigan State ranks T39th in scoring average allowing just 19 points per game. I don’t think Oregon will be able to run the ball very well against Michigan State as Sparty ranks 41st in rushing yards allowed. On the other side, Oregon ranks 77th in the nation in yards per carry, which would favor Michigan State.
Dillon Gabriel also owns less than a 6 yards aDOT(average depth of target), which means they are not pushing the ball down the field too often. If Michigan State can keep the ball in front of them, we could see them keep it close for a while, and even keep this thing within 21 points tonight!
My Best Bet:
Michigan St +24 (-120)
Bonus Bets:
Pittsburgh Team Total Over 33.5 (-115)
Missouri + 3 (-125)
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