Miami vs Florida State Preview: 3 Player Props and Best Bet for October 4

An in-state showdown of epic proportions is the featured game on Saturday as the No. 3-ranked Miami Hurricanes (4-0, 0-0 ACC) take on the No. 18-ranked Florida State Seminoles (3-1, 0-1 ACC) in Doak Campbell Stadium.

Miami has already beaten two other in-state rivals en route to its undefeated start. The Hurricanes downed previously unbeaten USF 49-12 before winning a hard-fought 26-7 decision over the Florida Gators two weeks ago.

Florida State was knocked from the undefeated ranks last week by Virginia in a Friday night instant classic. The Seminoles couldn’t convert on their opportunity in the second overtime, falling 46-38 to the Cavaliers.

The winner of this matchup will have a leg up in the ACC Championship picture. Can the Hurricanes continue to storm through the conference, or will the Seminoles weather this storm? We’ll cover that and provide bettors with our three favorite player prop bets from Saturday’s contest.

Miami Hurricanes QB Carson Beck UNDER 236.5 Passing Yards

After transferring to Miami, quarterback Carson Beck has had an immediate impact on the Hurricanes. He’s undefeated as a starter, completing 73 percent of his passes for 972 yards, seven touchdowns, and three interceptions.

Despite throwing a season-high 30 times against Florida, he finished with just 160 passing yards on 17 completions. Should bettors expect to see that same level of performance on Saturday?

The answer is yes. Florida State limited Virginia quarterback Chandler Morris to 229 yards last week, and Morris and his teammates ran for 211 yards against the Seminoles. Miami looks to do the same, and Beck will finish below his 236.5-yard passing prop mark on Saturday.

Florida State Seminoles QB Tommy Castellanos UNDER 47.5 Rushing Yards

Transfer Tommy Castellanos is a dual threat for the Seminoles. He’s completed over 64 percent of his passes for 848 yards, four touchdowns, and three interceptions. Where he’s been lethal is the running game, however. The 5-foot-11 athlete has 217 rushing yards on 41 attempts, scoring four times for FSU on the ground.

Miami has bottled up opposing quarterbacks this season. USF signal-caller Byrum Brown is the best example of the Hurricanes’ stout defense. While he’s rushed for 120 yards this season, only two of those came against Miami. It’s a warning sign that bettors should heed, meaning individuals should take Castellanos to finish under his high rushing prop total.

Miami Hurricanes WR C.J. Daniels OVER 46.5 Receiving Yards

Although freshman Malachi Toney is currently leading his team in receptions (22) and receiving yards (268), senior wide receiver C.J. Daniels is the one scouts have under their watchful eye. The 6-foot-2 receiver has 18 receptions for 191 yards and three scores, and he’s often the focus of opposing defenses.

That’s what bettors should expect FSU to do as well. Florida was successful in shutting him down, but the Gators’ run defense prevented that lockdown of Daniels from having any meaningful impact. Expect Daniels to catch at least one deep pass against the Seminoles en route to covering his player prop bet.

Friday, September 4 at 9:00 PM	Spread	Money	Total
Miami Hurricanes	-22.5 (-110)	-2400	O 49.5 (-110)
Stanford Cardinal	+22.5 (-110)	+1200	U 49.5 (-110)

Best Bet: Florida State (+4.5)

Since their season-opening win over Notre Dame, the Hurricanes haven’t had a close contest. Miami appears to be a team of destiny this season, and its schedule following this game would allow the school a legitimate shot at an undefeated season. That’s why I like Miami to win this contest.

Historically, however, this rivalry has been marked by close, down-to-the-wire contests. That hasn’t been the case in recent years as only two of the last six meetings have had one-score margins. Expect this game to return to that tradition of nailbiters, suggesting bettors should take the Seminoles to keep this close until the end.