Nearly a month ago, a highly-ranked Florida State Seminoles dropped a surprising decision to the Virginia Cavaliers on Friday night, falling 46-38 in double overtime. Will history repeat itself tonight when the Louisville Cardinals (4-1, 1-1 ACC) head south to face the No. 2-ranked Miami Hurricanes (5-0, 1-0 ACC)?
Louisville fell victim to the Cavaliers in their last outing on October 4th. The Cardinals were undefeated before that 30-27 overtime thriller, a team that is now ranked No. 18 in the country.
Miami’s closest contest was against Florida State two weeks ago. The Hurricanes built a 28-3 lead before the Seminoles scored 19 points in the fourth quarter to finish within a touchdown of their in-state rivals.
With a wide-open ACC race, Friday’s winner will have a better path to the conference’s championship game. Can the Cardinals weather the Hurricanes tonight? We’ll cover that and provide our top three player prop bets for the primetime affair.
Miami Hurricanes WR Malachi Toney OVER 67.5 Receiving Yards
Freshman wide receiver Malachi Toney earned the nickname “Baby Jesus” for his miraculous on-field receptions. He’s displayed those talents in his short college career, leading the Hurricane receiving corps with 29 receptions and 375 yards through five games.
His recent outing against Florida State was his best thus far. Toney notched seven receptions for 107 yards, scoring twice against the Seminoles in his team’s 28-22 victory.
Bettors shouldn’t expect him to finish with another 100-yard performance, but he’s caught at least six passes for 66 yards in four of his team’s five contests. Taking the over on this receiving prop bet to cash in on Baby Jesus’ offering on Friday night.
Louisville Cardinals QB Miller Moss OVER 254.5 Passing Yards
After a four-year stint at USC, quarterback Miller Moss traveled across the country to finish up his collegiate career with Louisville. The move has paid dividends as Moss has completed 67 percent of his passes for 1,358 yards and seven touchdowns in 2025.
Moss should be in for another strong outing on Friday night. Miami allowed FSU’s Tommy Castellanos to finish with 272 passing yards in their last outing. Bettors should expect a similar result for the 6-foot-2 senior signal-caller, and he’ll finish above 255 passing yards tonight to cover his prop wager.
Miami Hurricanes RB Mark Fletcher Jr UNDER 73.5 Rushing Yards
While Miami’s passing game is getting well-deserved praise, Hurricanes running back Mark Fletcher Jr. is quietly amassing a strong season. The junior has 428 yards on 78 carries, scoring five times for Miami this season.
After surpassing the 85-yard plateau in three straight games, the 6-foot-2 athlete was held to just 40 rushing yards on 12 carries against the Seminoles. Louisville’s rushing defense is strong, holding both Pitt and Virginia to under 90 yards. Expect the Cardinals to repeat that performance, keeping Fletcher from covering his rushing prop bet.
| Friday, September 4 at 9:00 PM | Spread | Money | Total |
| Miami Hurricanes |  -22.5 (-110) | -2400 | O 49.5 (-110) |
| Stanford Cardinal | +22.5 (-110) | +1200 | U 49.5 (-110) |
Best Bet: Miami (-13.5)
The Cavaliers-Seminoles game serves as a cautionary tale for top-ranked teams facing unranked conference opponents. Virginia focused on Florida State’s inability to stop the run game, scoring four touchdowns on the ground in their upset.
The difference in last month’s upset and tonight’s game is that the ranked team will serve as the host. Miami has yet to leave the state in 2025, playing all but one contest inside Hard Rock Stadium. Expect the Hurricanes to be focused and prepared to handle business, and bettors should take the Hurricanes to cover their two-score spread.
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