We are back for another weekend full of exciting college football, and we have already been treated to college football every day this week except Monday, what a time to be alive!!
Unfortunately, our last free play Sam Houston did not come to fruition. For those that don’t know they lost their QB early in the game and that pretty much doomed them! No excuses, injuries happen, next man up, next bet up!
Indiana and Cignetti Can Keep This Rolling!
This is going to be Indiana’s toughest test yet, and this surely will be one of the top games to watch this weekend. We have one of the best offensive teams in the country against one of the better defensive teams and something has to give. I have been high on this Indiana team all season and it starts with their passing attack.
Indiana has one of the best passing offenses in the country ranking; 12th in passing yards per game (302), 7th in passer rating (177), 12th in yards per completion (14.4), and 34th in allowing their QB to be sacked, so they protect him well. I understand how tough Nebraska's defense is, but I give Indiana and Cigneti the in-game play-calling edge.
Rourke, Indiana’s QB, has played better than Raiola, and Indiana ranked #1 in the country in pass-play success rate and should move the ball. A big area that stuck out to me is Nebraska is ranked 112th in offensive explosiveness and I believe will have trouble moving the ball.
Indiana also is ranked 12th in the country in red zone scoring at 96.5% clip, scoring 30 touchdowns in 37 trips to the red zone. This is a wide difference as Nebraska sits 108th at a 75% clip. Indiana should be able to find the red zone and when they do, they convert.
Kentucky/Florida Game May Get Ugly!
Anyone who plays Kentucky already knows they are in for a defensive battle. Kentucky is one of the best defensive teams in college football. They allow 14.5 points per game, rank 11th in QB sack rate (9.63%), and allow teams to convert only 36% of their 3rd down conversions.
Now they get to face a Florida team without their starting QB, and we saw a big drop-off once he left the game last week. Once their backup came in, they ran 26 plays and produced 67 total yards of offense, 1 TD, 1INT, 1 turnover on downs, and 1 missed FG. Obviously, a week to prepare with a new QB will help but this is not the time to be getting a new QB up to speed against this defense.
5 of 6 Kentucky’s games have gone under this mark, the one exception being when they scored 41 on Ohio, and they are not scoring 41 on this Florida defense. All 4 SEC games for Kentucky have stayed under 37 points and I believe that trend continues with a 20-17, 23-20 type of game here.
My Best Bets:
Indiana -5.5 (-122) BetRivers
Kentucky/Florida u42.5 (-110) ESPNBet
Bonus Bets:
Ryan Williams (Alabama) AnytimeTD (+130) Caesars
Restrepo (Miami) o80.5 RecYds (-120) BetRivers
