We are not taking for granted that our handicaps, week after week, continue to play out on the field in a way that grows our bankroll. K-State’s DJ Giddens ran for 115 yards, Washington’s Dillon Johnson eclipsed the 100-yard mark for the second straight week, and John Rhys Plumlee threw for 299 yards as UCF dominated Oklahoma State at home. All three results played into our hands, and another 3-0 week extended our run over the last five to 12-2.
Seven 10-0 teams are among the top 25 in the country, but only one is hosting College Gameday for the first time since 2017. The James Madison Dukes are 10.5-point faves against App State, can clinch a berth in the Sun Belt championship game with a win this week, and await the decision on their final appeal to the NCAA for bowl eligibility during a massively successful season in Harrisonburg.
They won’t appear in the CFP rankings due to their current ineligible status, and it will be interesting to see whether the national spotlight can sway the decision-makers. During a week with many top teams favored by three scores or more, there are some great matchups on the board this Saturday.
Ninth-ranked Louisville is a one-point favorite in Miami during a trap game spot against the Hurricanes, #21 Arizona is a favorite by one at home against Utah in a ranked Pac-12 battle, and the Oregon State Beavers are favored by 2.5 against Washington in an attempt to knock off the Huskies one last time before they ship off to the Big Ten.
We’re back with another prop card for Week 12 and will stick to our process after some strong results.
Gavin Wimsatt UNDER 0.5 Passing Touchdowns
Wimsatt has thrown eight TD passes in ten games and has 13 in 18 games dating back to last season. He’s averaging 87 yards per game in the previous three weeks, completing under 50% of his throws on the season for the second year in a row, and has become more of a threat on the ground in 2023 with 409 rushing yards, second on the team.
He’ll face a PSU pass defense that allowed seven TD passes in 10 games, including one combined to Ohio State and Michigan in their two losses. The main concern for the Nittany Lions is whether last week’s loss to the Wolverines will have broken their spirit.
We think it will have galvanized the team amid boos from the home fans, and Wimsatt will struggle against the country’s eighth-ranked pass D.
Joe Milton III UNDER 214.5 Passing Yards
Here are some recent performances of SEC quarterbacks against the Dawgs’ defense relative to a larger sample:
- Jaxson Dart - averages 258 ypg, threw for 112 @ Georgia
- Brady Cook - averages 274 ypg, threw for 212 @ Georgia
- Graham Mertz - averaged 317.5 in the two games on either side of the Georgia matchup (four total), managed 230 yards vs Georgia
Milton averages 228 yards per game on the season but failed to reach 215 yards against teams like Texas A&M, UTSA, and UVA. We expect the Dawgs to hold him under 200 yards on Saturday. This should be an easy Under!
Ja’Lynn Polk UNDER 67.5 Receiving Yards
Polk has reeled in fewer than 55 receiving yards in two of three Pac-12 road games and caught a 92-yard pass against Stanford to inflate his stat line from that contest.
Oregon State allows opposing passers to complete fewer than 60% of their attempts and recently held Shadeur Sanders to his lowest passing total at home in 2023.
Polk will struggle to get involved against one of the better defenses in the conference.
