The College Football Playoffs have arrived, and we get our first taste on Friday night! As the 1st round ramps up this weekend, we have 4 stellar matchups, with 4 host teams in Notre Dame, Penn State, Ohio State, and Texas.
I also continue to hear question marks on why we have 2 ACC teams in the first place, and rightfully so, but we are here to attack the books and continue to cash in College Football!
Notre Dame Should Be Too Much Through 4 Quarters
This is not an easy pick, but a couple of things stand out for me to side with Notre Dame. They have a much more talented team everywhere, and even though that doesn’t always win ball games, I do believe their talent in the trenches, and their defense is going to cause too many problems for Indiana.
With 1 week to prepare, the newly extended Marcus Freeman is 7-0 ATS with an average winning margin of 17. And though I don’t expect a 17-point victory here, they should be able to wear down Indiana, and I see a similar game playing out to the Ohio State game, score-wise.
Indiana struggled to move the ball vs Ohio State's defense, and I believe this Notre Dame defense is better than Ohio State's, even though they have played lower competition. They have dominated every game they have been in, except the Northern Illinois loss, which I believe was the best thing to happen to Notre Dame's Offense.
The Irish are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 as a favorite, and I do think they will continue their trend of holding teams under 16 points at home, which they did in 5 of their 6 games this season. Over 4 quarters I expect the Irish to make more plays on both sides of the ball being able to push this past 7.
Penn State Dominated at Home in 2024
Weather elements in State Park, PA look to be sub 30 degrees, around 25 Fahrenheit come game time. Will SMU be able to handle, not only the brittle cold, but this Penn State defense, with this raucous crowd behind them for 4 quarters. Sure James Franklin can never win the big one, but this is just the first baby step to the bigger ones and I don’t think they will have a similar game as Clemson/SMU did.
Clemson was able to move the ball very easily on SMU, and I see the same path for Penn State who should be able to pass the ball in this game and find some success pounding the rock behind that offensive line. At home this season, Penn State has covered 8 in 5/7 games, and in those 5 games they had margins of victory of 37, 29, 16, 14, & 56.
Over the course of 4 quarters I do expect Penn State to dominate in the trenches. I don’t think SMU will find the same success moving the ball as they did vs Clemson. With those key defensive stops, I do think State will be able to stretch this game out to double digits for a sweat free cash!
My Best Bets (2):
Notre Dame -7 (-115)
Penn State -8 (121)
