Boise State vs South Florida: Best Bet for Thursday, August 28

The first game on the Week 1 college football board should be a good one, as Boise State will travel cross-country to Tampa to take on South Florida. The game will take place at 5:30 PM EDT on ESPN, and hardcore Broncos fans will be pumped to see if their team can build off last year’s playoff berth.

I’ve done a deep dive into this game and came up with a best bet to make your Thursday evening a little more fun. Good luck and enjoy the action! Ain’t it great to have football back?

Betting Odds for Boise State vs South Florida

Online sportsbooks opened this line at Boise State -9.5 back in the latter part of spring. A ton of money has come in on USF, so much so that the line is now Boise State -5.5 at most sportsbooks in the country. Other bookmakers like BetMGM are still offering Boise State -6.5 with -105 juice.

As for the game total, there has been a little bit of an appetite for the Under. The line opened at 63.5, but it’s now sitting at 62.5 on most sports betting apps. One outlier is Circa, which is hanging 62. That’s a shocker, especially since both of these teams ran an up-tempo offense last season.

Will Boise State Build on Last Year’s Playoff Berth?

It was a banner year for the Broncos in 2024, as they won the Mountain West title and enjoyed a trip to the College Football Playoff. Boise State’s offense thrived all season long on the legs of running back Ashton Jeanty, who came close to winning the Heisman. Jeanty is now on to greener pastures in the NFL with the Las Vegas Raiders.

It looks like Boise State head coach Spencer Danielson will go with a running back by committee approach to replace Jeanty. Former Fresno State star Malik Sherrod will be a good change of pace back, but the smart money says that freshman Sire Gaines will get the bulk of the carries for the Broncos.

Maddux Madsen returns at QB for Boise State, and he’ll have a couple of new wideouts to target. Chase Penry came over from Coach Prime’s Colorado squad, and Chris Marshall transferred in from Texas A&M. Those two guys will help this squad lessen the blow from losing a once-in-a-generation type of back like Jeanty.

Will South Florida Take Another Step Forward?

USF made it to a bowl last season, and head coach Alex Golesh has to be pleased with the overall direction of the program. The Bulls have a tough opening to the season, as they visit both the Florida Gators and the Miami Hurricanes after this opener at home against Boise State.

Bulls QB Byrum Brown suffered an unfortunate injury last season that caused him to miss the bulk of the schedule. Even still, Brown showed what he could do in 2023, when he threw for 3,292 yards and rushed for another 809. That type of dual-threat ability could cause headaches for the Boise State defense on Thursday night.

Brown’s wide receiver corps should be much improved this season. Keshaun Singleton and Mudia Reuben (a transfer from Stanford) have tons of length, and they could pose some matchup problems against the thin Boise State secondary.

Best Bet: South Florida +6.5 (-115) (BetMGM)

I’m kicking myself for not playing this earlier this summer when we could have gotten +7.5 or better. Even still, I think the Bulls can take the Broncos all the way down to the wire in this home opener. South Florida has more returning starters than any other team in the AAC, and that type of veteran leadership is so important early in a new season.

I respect the heck of out Boise State, and I think they’ll have another fine season. That being said, the loss of Jeanty makes them vulnerable to a possible upset in this spot. It also could take the Broncos offense a while to get rolling, as they just hired a new offensive coordinator (Nate Potter) back in January.

In the end, I think this is too many points for Boise State to be laying in Week 1, especially on the road in a tough environment. I also wonder if the heat and humidity down in Tampa will wear Boise State down late in the second half. I’ll make USF plus the points a best bet and sprinkle a little something on the moneyline.

Prediction: South Florida 34 – Boise State 31