Best CFB Player Prop Bets for the Saturday Slate of Bowl Games

The first kickoffs of 2023’s bowl season are lined up for this Saturday, and the matchups resemble a colorful compilation of holiday potpourri.

The slate includes, among others, an 11 am ET start in Myrtle Beach between Georgia Southern and Ohio, a meeting of famed HBCUs featuring Howard University and FAMU in the Celebration Bowl, the MAC champs of Miami-OH as 6.5-point dogs to App State, UCLA facing Mountain West-champion Boise State, and Cal vs. Texas Tech to conclude the day in the Independence Bowl.

The App State Mountaineers are the largest favorite on the board, with a 6.5-point advantage on paper over Miami-OH. The rest of the action comprises games with spreads between 3-3.5 points, with the point being that these matchups should be entertaining.

Favorites have won straight up in 127 of 190 bowl games, the CFP included, over the last five years. That’s a win rate of 66.8%. However, favorites have only covered the number in 51.9% of those games. That translates to a strong correlation between underdogs winning outright when they cover the number. Dogs in the last five years have covered the number 91 times in bowl games, winning outright 69.2% of the time in those instances.

The moral of the story is that if you like the underdog in a given bowl game, it would be worth considering a moneyline bet given the volatility of final scores this time of year.

A quick recap of our pair of championship week props: Michael Penix didn’t cash the over on 2.5 TD passes in Washington’s Pac-12 title victory, and Blake Corum was held under 60 rushing yards in an easy winner for us to split those picks. We couldn’t be happier about a 17-5 run to end the regular season and conference championship games.

Our Top 3 CFB Player Props for Saturday, December 16

We broke down the player props available for each of the 6 college football bowl games on Saturday's schedule to identify our 3 best bets:

Davis Brin (GA Southern) UNDER 1.5 Passing TDs (-135 @ DraftKings)

• Ohio has the 7th-ranked pass defense in the country and allowed one passing TD per game this season, 15th-best in the nation.
• Brin, the senior transfer from Tulsa, threw two or more touchdown passes in six of his first eight games this season. He only accomplished that once in the final four games, throwing five TD passes to four interceptions.
• The Bobcats’ defense gave up an average of 7.3 first downs per game through the air, the 6th-fewest in the country.

Jacob Kibodi (Louisiana-Lafayette) UNDER 53.5 Rushing Yards (-115 @ DraftKings)

• Jacksonville State ranks fourth in the country in opponent rushing average, holding teams to 2.8 yards per carry.
• The Gamecocks allow 6.1 rushing first downs per game, the 19th-best mark in the FBS.
• Kibodi, who began his college career at Texas A&M in 2017, struggled over his last four games of the season. The senior managed 3.4 yards per rush on 42 carries as the Ragin' Cajuns lost three of four in conference play.
• Kibodi, who has 129 carries this year after 82 total in his career before 2023, saw his productivity decline significantly as the workload increased later in the season.
• First six games: 51 carries, 439 yards, 8.6 ypc, 4 TDs.
• Final six games: 78 carries, 290 yards, 3.7 ypc, 3 TDs.

Jadyn Ott (Cal) OVER 102.5 Rushing Yards (-115 @ DraftKings)

• Ott has posted 20+ carries in five straight games, averaging 25 per game in that span.
• In that same five-game stretch, which included UCLA and Oregon meetings, Ott averaged 5.3 yards per rush and 131.8 yards per game with six touchdowns.
• Texas Tech’s defense ranks 89th in the country in opponent yards per carry (4.5).
• The Red Raiders got steamrolled on the ground in their final three games of the season. Texas, UCF, and Kansas combined to rush for 747 yards and six touchdowns on 5.8 yards per attempt against this battered defense.