The third Saturday in October is special for many reasons, but college football fans know that the weekend signifies an annual meeting between two SEC powerhouses. On Saturday, the No. 7 ranked Alabama Crimson Tide (5-1) travels north to face the No. 11 ranked Tennessee Volunteers (5-1) in one of two big-time games for the SEC.
The Crimson Tide held on to win against South Carolina last week, avoiding their first back-to-back losses in over a decade. After starting the year strong, Alabama’s defense has allowed 25 or more points in the last three contests, including a 40-point outing against Vanderbilt.
Tennessee’s defense has been stout throughout the year, but their offensive firepower to start the season has slowed significantly. The Volunteers were held scoreless in the first half for a second consecutive game, and Tennessee needed overtime to fend off the Florida Gators.
Can Alabama shore up its porous defense, or will the Volunteers wake from the offensive slumber? We’ll cover this game and our three top player prop bets below.
Tennessee Volunteers QB Nico Iamaleava UNDER 199.5 Passing Yards
Tennessee freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava has been phenomenal in his first six outings, completing 65.7 percent of his passes for 1,219 yards and seven touchdowns against only three interceptions. He’s also run for 135 yards on 44 carries, adding one score on the ground.
In his last four outings, Iamaleava has been under 200 yards as Tennessee’s established their dominance on the ground. It’s hard to expect anything less against Alabama as their run defense has been gashed for 298 yards over the past two contests.
Alabama Crimson Tide QB Jalen Milroe OVER 235.5 Passing Yards
Milroe has made a case for his Heisman hype, accounting for over 1,800 yards in his team’s first six outings. Through the air, Milroe is completing 72.7 percent of his passes for 1,483 yards and 12 touchdowns while he’s also scored 11 times on the ground by rushing for 319 yards on 77 carries.
Against Arkansas and Florida, the Volunteers have allowed average quarterbacks to finish the game with at least 220 yards through the air. Expect Milroe to showcase his talents in this one, using both his legs and his arm to torch the Tennessee defense. He’ll go over 236 yards to cover this player prop bet on Saturday.
Tennessee Volunteers RB Dylan Sampson OVER 99.5 Rushing Yards
Volunteers running back Dylan Sampson has been incredible this season. The 5-foot-11 junior has started the year with 699 rushing yards through six games, logging 15 touchdowns on just 118 carries.
Alabama has yet to allow a single player to achieve 100 yards on the ground this season, but there’s reason to believe Sampson will be the first to do so. Only Oklahoma held the running back to less than triple-figure rushing, but Tennessee did not need him at the end of that game. The Volunteers will need him against Alabama, so expect him to cover this player prop bet.
Best Bet: OVER 56.5 Total Points
We’ll pick a winner in a minute, but here’s why taking the over on the points total is the best bet for Saturday’s contest. These teams have two of the best offensive minds in the game with Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer and Tennessee coach Josh Heupel calling the plays.
Since Tennessee’s competition has stiffened, the Volunteers have relied on their defense to win games. Alabama has been reliant on out-scoring their opponents, however, as the Crimson Tide have not put together a strong defensive effort for four quarters since early September.
Expect these two offenses to put up points, and a final score around 34-31 would not be out of the question on Saturday. And with the Volunteers at home, bettors can take the money line for Tennessee in this contest.
