4 College Football Best Bets and Predictions for Week 5 (September 27)

College football’s Week 5 slate is absolutely LOADED! Get our 4 best bets by reading this betting preview for Saturday, September 27. Best of luck!

USC Trojans vs Illinois Fighting Illini

USC heads to Illinois with a 4-0 record and a #21 ranking, along with one of the best offenses in the conference. After a couple of easy wins over Missouri St (73-13) and Georgia Southern (59-20), the Trojans won convincingly at Purdue and last week against Michigan State at home.

They are winning by an average of 32.25 points per game. Jayden Maiava has been spectacular to date under center. He has thrown for over 1200 yards and has yet to throw an interception while completing 9 touchdown passes on the year. Waymond Jordan and Eli Sanders have combined for almost 700 yards on the ground, and the defense had been good up until last week, when they gave up 31 to a mediocre MSU offense.

Illinois is coming into this one licking its wounds from the pounding it took last week in Indiana. The 63-10 blowout loss was over before it started, and the Illini had no answer for Fernando Mendoza, who tossed 5 touchdowns on 21-23 passing. The 63 points allowed now account for 74% of the points the Illini have allowed on the season. They will need to put this past game behind them quickly if they want to stop the Trojans that are coming to town, looking to kick them while they are down.

While the Illinois offense was quiet against a strong Indiana defense, we like them to bounce back here at home against what looked to be a susceptible Trojan defense last week. We also expect the USC offense to continue to roll, and if Illinois plays defense anywhere near the way they played last week, the fireworks could go off early and often.

Best Bet: OVER 61

Key Trends

• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Southern California’s last 6 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Illinois’ last 5 games against an opponent in the Big Ten conference.
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Illinois’ last 6 games played on a Saturday.

LSU Tigers vs Ole Miss Rebels

LSU is 4-0 and seemingly has a couple of good wins under their belt with their opening win over then #4 Clemson and a 20-10 win over Florida 2 weeks ago. However, Clemson is now just 1-3 and Florida is just 1-2. Maybe those wins are not as significant as once thought.

They are coming off a cupcake game against SE Louisiana where they won 56-10 but we can not take much from that game. In both of their wins over Clemson and Florida, the defense was stout and allowed just 10 points in each game. However, the offense has not lived up to expectations and Nussmeier has not improved his draft stock to this point. He will have an opportunity to do just that here on the road at Ole Miss.

Ole Miss is also 4-0 but have lacked a quality win. Arkansas and Kentucky were decent wins but they failed to cover the spread in each and allowed a total of 58 points in those wins. They are coming off a 45-10 win over Tulane where they looked a bit more what most expected to this point but will we see Austin Simmons or Trinidad Chambliss under center in this contest. It could be that Lane Kiffin plays them both a bit as they have seemed to be interchangeable due to their similar skill sets. The defense is going to need to play like they did against Tulane because while this LSU team has yet to bust the doors down offensively, they certainly have the fire-power to do so.

While some may see it as a disadvantage to not having a consistent QB under center, we believe this will play to the advantage of Lane Kiffin and the Rebels. With the total being under 60, we believe that the offenses will not be blowing up the scoreboard and with Ole Miss being the better of the two to this point, we believe they will do enough offensively to take this one at home over the visiting Top 5 LSU Tigers.

Best Bet: Ole Miss -1

Key Trends

• Ole Miss is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing as the favorite.
• Ole Miss is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games.
• Ole Miss is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games at home.

Alabama Crimson Tide vs Georgia Bulldogs -3

While most eyes will be fixed to the Oregon vs PSU game, the entire south will be watching this top SEC matchup. The Crimson Tide got off to a rocky start with losing their opener to Florida State but have bounced back by clobbering UL Monroe 73-0 and then handing Wisconsin a 38-14 beating. And that loss to then unranked FSU does not seem that bad with the Noles sitting at 3-0 and a #8 ranking next to their name.

It was basically the Tide’s inability to get their run game going against the Noles combined with their inability to stop the run on defense that led to their opening loss. Since then, they have held their opponents under 100 yards rushing in each and have accumulated nearly 1000 yards of total offense. However, that came against opponents much less than what they face in Georgia this week.

The Bulldogs pulled out an incredible come from behind win over Tennessee on the road last week. The 44-41 win was done in epic fashion. Trailing 38-30 with just over 2 minutes remaining, Gunner Stockton hit London Humphreys to score and then hit Zachariah Branch for the 2-point conversion to send the game into overtime. There, they answered Tennessee’s field goal with a game winning touchdown from Josh McCray’s 1-yard plunge. While the defense struggled, mainly through the air, there were positive strides made by the offense that finished with over 500 yards of total offense and winning the time of possession by nearly 17 minutes.

Alabama just does not seem to be the same since DeBoer has taken over. Now, they find themselves in a rivalry game on the road and in their only test of the season to date, having lost to FSU. We believe that Georgia offense is going to take this Bama defense to task and make it too tough for the Tide to come back in this on the road.

Best Bet: Georgia -3

Key Trends

• Alabama is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road.
• Alabama is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games played on a Saturday when playing on the road.
• Georgia is 32-0 SU in its last 32 games at home.

Oregon Ducks +3.5 vs Penn State Nittany Lions

In the marquee matchup of the weekend, the #6 Oregon Ducks head into Happy Valley in a whiteout game against the #3 ranked Penn State Nittany Lions. TO date, the Ducks have not played a truly tough opponent, but have dominated except for a late 2 touchdown allowance against Northwestern that turned a 34-0 victory into a 34-14 victory.

Dante Morre has been exceptional running the Duck offense and has thrown 11 touchdowns with just 1 interception. 7 different running backs have logged decent carries and contributed to the team’s over 1000 yards of rushing offense. That said, it has been the defense that has been the most impressive part of this Duck start. Take away 4th quarter scoring and they have allowed a total of just 16 points.

Penn State has had a similar start to their season with a 3-0 mark but playing inferior opponents. They have defeated Nevada, FIU, and Villanova in their 3 games. The defense was near perfect in their games but the offense has been lacking. Drew Allar is completing less than 65% of his passes and this has been against defenses that he should be shredding. Luckily, Allen and Singleton have picked things up a bit on the ground and combined for 8 touchdowns. If they want to win this matchup and keep their eyes on a national championship, the offense will need to produce.

Look, we simply do not trust James Franklin in the big games. He has consistently let down the PSU faithful and always seems to get outcoached in these matchups. We believe that will happen again here and combine that with the fact that Allar has not looked good and now will be facing a high-level defense, we believe the Vally will be very unhappy after this one.

Best Bet: Oregon +3.5

Key Trends

• Oregon is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games played in September.
• Oregon is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games.
• PSU is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games.
• PSU is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games played in September.