2026 Heisman Trophy Odds: CJ Carr and Arch Manning Lead a Wide-Open Race

The 2026 Heisman Trophy race kicks off with Notre Dame’s CJ Carr and Texas’s Arch Manning locked in a virtual coin-flip at the top of the board, but recent history says don’t get too attached to whoever’s favored in August.

How the Board Looks Right Now

Carr sits at the top of most sportsbooks around +700 to +750, with Manning breathing down his neck at +750 to +800 depending on where you shop. The two have traded the top spot multiple times over the summer, and at several books they’re separated by less than a full point of implied probability. Both play for teams that are expected to be in the thick of the College Football Playoff picture, which matters — Heisman voters overwhelmingly gravitate toward quarterbacks on winning teams with national title buzz.

Carr comes off a strong first full season as the Fighting Irish’s starter, and Notre Dame carries national championship odds in the same range as Texas, both sitting just behind Ohio State as the favorite. Manning, meanwhile, is back for another shot after a 2025 campaign that didn’t live up to the hype — he was actually the preseason favorite last year too, at shorter odds than he’s getting now, and finished well outside the final race. Texas has reloaded the offense around him this offseason, which is part of why he’s still priced as a co-favorite despite last year’s disappointment.

Top Contenders

Behind the top two, Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss sits in the +900 to +1075 range after winning an eligibility case that got him a sixth year in Oxford. He was outstanding in 2025 — 22 touchdown passes against just three interceptions, plus eight more scores on the ground — and the Rebels bringing him back gives him a real shot at the trophy if Ole Miss contends in the SEC.

Oregon’s Dante Moore and Miami’s Darian Mensah occupy the next tier, both hovering around +1000 to +1100. Ohio State’s Julian Sayin, priced around +1100 to +1200, is notable as the only returning finalist from last year’s actual Heisman ceremony, which gives him a proven track record the rest of this group doesn’t have.

The most interesting name outside the quarterback pack is Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, priced around +1200 to +1400 — the best odds of any non-quarterback on the board. Smith piled up 1,243 yards and 12 touchdowns as a sophomore, and if Ohio State’s passing game funnels through him again, he’s the receiver most likely to break the position drought that’s defined this award for years — a name worth watching alongside the NCAAF championship odds as the season unfolds. Indiana’s Josh Hoover, a TCU transfer stepping into the void left by last year’s winner, and Georgia’s Gunner Stockton round out the group of players regularly mentioned in the conversation, along with Sam Leavitt, who followed Lane Kiffin from Arizona State to LSU this offseason.

The last time the actual preseason Heisman favorite went on to win the award was Marcus Mariota in 2014 — over a decade of upsets since.

That stat alone should shape how anyone approaches this market in August. Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza, last year’s landslide winner and the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, opened at a staggering longshot price before erupting into a runaway winner by the time votes were cast. The board gets reshuffled hard every single season once actual games start being played, and the value in Heisman futures is almost always found well before October, not at the top of the board in Week 1.

That’s not a knock on Carr or Manning — both are legitimately talented quarterbacks on teams that should be good. It’s just a reminder that this market moves fast and moves often. Anyone shopping futures markets this early should think of the board less as a prediction and more as a snapshot that’s going to look completely different by midseason.

The Best Bet

With the top two priced so close together, the smarter angle isn’t picking between Carr and Manning — it’s finding value further down the board before the market catches up to whoever separates from the pack in September and October. Ohio State’s Julian Sayin stands out as a name with real staying power: he’s already proven he can play at a Heisman-finalist level, he’s got a loaded roster around him, and his current price still reflects last year’s disappointment more than this year’s ceiling.

• Pick: CJ Carr +700
• Value alternative: Julian Sayin +1150

Carr’s the safer bet given Notre Dame’s national title odds and his proven 2025 tape, but Sayin’s combination of finalist experience and roster talent makes him the best bet for anyone looking for real value on this early board.