As we hit the last day of the year, we are blessed with 4 Bowl games and 1 Playoff game between Penn State and Boise St! We should end the year with a bang, and I am excited to get to these games tomorrow!
I have identified 2 more plays I love in the Alabama/Michigan and South Carolina/Illinois games. Let's cash both of these and end 2024 on the right note!
Two Teams Full of Talented Athletes, I Expect Points!
Alabama and Michigan, two powerhouses, some expected to be playing in the playoffs, are meeting each other tomorrow in the ReliaQuest Bowl, a nice consolation prize! Alabama averaged 27 points in their 9 wins this season, and I do expect Alabama to win this game by double digits. I would have loved the -10 line earlier in the week, but I do think 14 could be too many points.
This is where I look at another angle and this game smells like an over to me. Both teams went over in 60% of their games this season and something that stood out to me was Alabama's defense on the road. In road games this season, they allowed 24 points or more in 3 of their 4 games and I don’t see that improving here.
Michigan on offense scored 24 points or more in 6 of their 12 games played this season and that goes right in line with Alabama allowing 24 points or more on the road. I do expect points in this game with the athletes both teams have on offense to make explosive plays.
Michigan allowed 38 points to Oregon, 31 to Texas, and 27 to Washington, and I believe this Alabama offense, when locked in, can hang scoring with those teams. I believe Alabama can get into the 30s in this game with Michigan finding at least 20, and I project this score to be Michigan 24 - Alabama 34. Let's get some points and cash this one!
10 Points Might Be Too Much in A Lower Scoring Game!
In this matchup between South Carolina and Illinois, we get two defensive-minded teams that found success scoring the rock when they needed to. Both defenses allowed less than 23 points per game, ranked top 32 in the country. With better defenses, we usually get tighter spreads and closer games as it's hard to blow a team out when the offense can’t score much.
That could be what we see in this game, though I do expect some points to be scored. I was a huge fan of South Carolina this season, but when they went on the road, they did struggle a tad, averaging almost 5 points less per game on the road.
With Illinois defense allowing just 22 points per game, and South Carolina struggling on the road, I have a hard time believing they will find the offense to win by double digits. South Carolina faced 6 ranked teams this year allowing an average of 26 per game.
Illinois is also coming into this game in spectacular form, winning their last 3 games outright and covering the spread in each. Illinois also covered +10 in their last 4 games and 8 of their last 10 this season, losing both at Oregon and Penn State.
My Best Bets (2):
Alabama/Michigan Over 43 (-122)
Illinois +10 (-108)
