The madness of March is underway! The NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament tips off tonight with the First Four, matching up teams looking to qualify for the opening round of the college’s premier basketball postseason competition. The headliner for Tuesday will feature the San Diego State Aztecs (21-9) facing the UNC Tar Heels (22-13) for the South region’s No. 11 seed.
San Diego enters the tournament as the fourth Mountain West Conference school in this year’s tournament. The Aztecs earned their berth despite losing in the quarterfinal round of the MWC postseason tournament thanks to their impressive win over Houston earlier this year.
North Carolina is a controversial inclusion in this year’s tournament. The Tar Heels' lone win over a ranked opponent occurred in December as the school beat then-ranked UCLA by two points. UNC won two ACC tournament games before falling in the semifinals against Duke for the third time this season.
Will San Diego or North Carolina continue their dreams of cutting down the nets inside the Alamodome in April? We’ll cover that and our three favorite player prop bets for this First Four matchup.
UNC Tar Heels G R.J. Davis UNDER 15.5 Points
The Tar Heels have relied on guard R.J. Davis to power their offense this season. The senior is leading the team with 17.0 points per outing, relying heavily on his long-range shooting to produce for UNC.
Davis has been strong in recent outings, connecting nearly 54 percent of his trifecta attempts during his last seven games. That includes a 0-of-3 performance against Duke in the semifinals of the ACC Tournament.
His struggles have appeared when facing good defensive guards, something that San Diego State has. Without hitting three or more three-pointers, bettors should expect Davis to finish slightly under this player prop bet on Tuesday night.
San Diego State Aztecs Nicholas Boyd OVER 20.5 Pts + Ast
Two years ago, the Florida Atlantic Owls reached the NCAA Final Four, dropping a heartbreaking decision to San Diego 72-71. That Owls team featured a starting guard named Nicholas Boyd, a sophomore who contributed to Florida Atlantic’s deepest postseason run in school history.
This year, Boyd transferred to San Diego in hopes of making another Cinderella postseason run. The senior is powering his school’s offense this season; in eight of the past 10 games, Boyd has finished with at least 21 combined points and assists for the Aztecs. There’s no reason to believe he’ll do anything less in Tuesday’s game, easily covering this prop bet.
UNC Tar Heels F Ven-Allen Lubin OVER 8.5 Rebounds
Junior Ven-Allen Lubin has become one of the Tar Heels’ better inside forces this season. The 6-foot-8 forward started over the last half of the season, and he’s averaging 8.5 points and 5.6 rebounds per outing.
During the past five outings, he’s been the team’s leading rebounder, averaging 10 boards during that stretch. There’s little reason to believe he’ll do anything less against the Aztecs, making him a lock to cover this player prop bet tonight.
Best Bet: San Diego (+5.5)
San Diego is coming into the tournament having lost two of the team’s final three outings, dropping games to teams that finished beneath them in the Mountain West Conference this season. UNC won eight of their past 10 games, helping the school secure their berth in this contest in the first place.
So why should bettors believe that the Aztecs will cover this 5.5-point spread? The team’s final eight wins came against teams that did not qualify for the NCAA Tournament.
The Tar Heels were the last team to qualify for this tournament for a very good reason, giving bettors confidence San Diego will either win this contest outright or keep it close until the end.
