Final Four Saturday gives us two elite matchups between #3 Illinois vs #2 UCONN and #1 Michigan vs #1 Arizona. On the biggest stage, I expect tighter rotations with heavier minutes and usage from the best players.
I’ve put together a 2-leg parlay across both games, focusing on two of the best players in each game that have given us consistency with these categories.
Alex Karaban Over 3.5 Rebounds
Karaban continues to be one of the most reliable guys for UConn. Over his last 20 games, he’s cleared this number in 70% of them, while averaging just over 5 rebounds per game. He is consistently on the floor in big minutes, averaging 37 minutes per game in his last five games.
He spaces the floor offensively and has a knack for crashing the glass. We’ve seen this matchup already, and Karaban had no issue finding 4 rebounds as he finished that game with 9. Illinois is a team that generates a lot of rebound chances due to its pace of play and shot volume.
When they can, they like to push the tempo and get their looks at the basket. With higher volume and a stronger defense by UCONN, that could create plenty of missed shots.
Yaxel Lendeborg Over 14.5 Points
Lendeborg has been amazing in big games in this tournament, scoring 27, 23, and 25 in his last three games. Alting his number down to 15, he’s gone over this number in 7 of his last 10 games, averaging over 18 points per game. He is also consistently on the floor, hitting 35 minutes per game over his last 10, while averaging 10.5 shots and 4.1 free throw attempts per game.
Looking at the Arizona matchup, it is scary as their defense has really locked down, but they’ve shown vulnerability against athletic forwards who can get inside and attack the paint. We’ve seen multiple forwards recently find success scoring against them, specifically Tugler from Houston and Jefferson/Momcilovic, all had 20+ vs Arizona.
Everyone expects this game to stay competitive, which keeps his minutes and usage intact. With how consistent his role has been, this line still feels a bit short relative to his recent production.
2-Leg Parlay (-103, FanDuel)
Alex Karaban Over 3.5 Rebounds
Yaxel Lendeborg Over 14.5 Points
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