NCAA Tournament Picks: 2 Best Bets and Predictions for March 19-20

Welcome back College Basketball fans! If you tailed yesterday’s article, you know we have to get some redemption tonight! We swept two articles ago, only to turn around and lose both yesterday. Alabama State ripped our hearts out winning by 2 late, when we needed -2.5. San Diego State stole a spot from someone else. That's a fact!

In March it's always quick redemption the next day, and I believe we have a couple of winners for you in this article! One play will be for today, March 19th, while the second is for Thursday’s opening round of the NCAA Tournament.

If You Are American…You Must Root for American!

All kidding aside, this team is a fantastic ball club! After tying for 1st place in their regular season with Bucknell, they proceeded to take the Patriot League Tournament Championship. Mount Saint Mary’s on the other hand finished tied for 4th in their conference standings and made an incredible run to win their tournament title.

In conference alone, American ranked 3rd in offensive efficiency and 2nd in defensive efficiency. Mount Saint Mary’s ranked 7th in both offensive/defensive efficiencies! Both of my models have this a 2- and 1-point game for American and it should be close! American is deep, and the 50th-ranked most experienced team according to KenPom.

American starts four seniors, and a very good sophomore in Greg Jones. The combination of Jones, Matt Rogers, and Elijah Stephens can get the job done here. American and Mount Saint Mary’s played 4 times between 2019 and 2024, American took all four.

Louisville Gets Past Creighton!

Louisville based on my models has the advantage as it currently has their ML valued at -180 and we are getting sub-140. The models also like Louisville by 5 and 3 points. Taking spreads out of these games and sticking to ML, if possible, is the way to go in this tournament!

According to KenPom, Louisville's defense is ranked 21 spots higher in efficiency, while their offense is rated 5 spots higher. Louisville ranks top 30 on both sides of the ball.

I love the veteran backcourt play of Chucky Hepburn and Terrence Edwards, leading an offense that averages 4 more points on offense while allowing 1 less on defense. Bring a towel for a sweaty ride, but Louisville punches their ticket to the next round!

Best Bets:

1.5% American ML (-138)
1.5% Louisville ML (-134)