With just a little more than a week left in this year’s college basketball season, the SEC will showcase two teams certain to make the NCAA Tournament this year when the No. 24 ranked Mississippi State Bulldogs (19-8, 7-7 SEC) face off against the No. 6 ranked Alabama Crimson Tide (22-5, 11-3 SEC) on Tuesday.
Their first game was a barn-burner as Alabama survived their road conference tilt, winning the game 88-84 on January 29th. Can the Crimson Tide sweep the Bulldogs this season, or will Mississippi State earn its revenge? We’ll cover that and our three best player prop bets for tonight’s SEC matchup.
Alabama Crimson Tide G Mark Sears UNDER 19.5 Points
Senior guard Mark Sears is the reason Alabama is again among the top teams in the country. The 6-foot-1 athlete is leading his team with 18.9 points per game while also contributing 3.0 rebounds and 4.8 assists per night.
In these teams’ first outing, Sears finished with 17 points as the Bulldogs keyed in on the Crimson Tide’s top player. There’s little reason to believe this matchup will be different, and expect Sears to finish under this player’s projected total on Tuesday.
Mississippi State Bulldogs F Keshawn Murphy OVER 7.5 Rebounds
Mississippi State junior Keshawn Murphy is enjoying his best season for the Bulldogs in 2024-2025. The forward is averaging 11.4 points and a team-best 7.5 rebounds in the 27 games he’s played this season.
As he’s done most of the season, Murphy did not start when these two teams met in January. Still, he’s played more than half the contest each night, and in the first outing, he finished with 18 points and six rebounds.
For six consecutive games, he’s finished with at least eight rebounds and led his teammates in five of those six outings. Expect a similar result tonight against Alabama as Murphy will finish with eight rebounds to cover this player prop bet.
Alabama Crimson Tide F Grant Nelson OVER 19.5 Pts + Reb
Senior Grant Nelson has had a strong finish to his collegiate career. The Crimson Tide forward has scored 12.2 points and grabbed 7.9 rebounds per outing thus far for Alabama, and that’s despite a recent slump in both scoring and rebounding.
In these two teams’ first meeting, Nelson finished with 15 points and five rebounds, stats that would barely cover his player prop bet for Tuesday. Despite his recent slump, expect him to finish well over the 20 combined points and rebounds needed tonight in a breakthrough game as he helps Alabama beat Mississippi State.
Best Bet: OVER 172.5
Speaking about Alabama winning this contest, the SEC matchups this season are going down to the wire among the top teams. Yes, taking Alabama is a no-brainer, but the 8.5-point spread is a little frightening.
Instead, bettors should look at the total combined points being offered for these two teams. Although these squads did not exceed 172 points in their last matchup, take the over on the total points scored on Tuesday night. Expect a final score to be 90-84 in Alabama’s favor to cover this bet.
