After a strong run to start the decade, the Iowa Hawkeyes (15-14, 6-12 Big Ten) have fallen on hard times the past two seasons. Iowa finished last season 19-15 but narrowly missed out on their fourth consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance. This year, the Hawkeyes need luck to just make their conference tournament because only the top 15 teams will make the cut.
Iowa’s opponent on Thursday night – the No. 8 ranked Michigan State Spartans (24-5, 15-3 Big Ten) – are shoo-ins for the Big Ten and NCAA Tournament. The Spartans have won five straight games heading into tonight’s road contest, and Michigan State looks like a traditional Izzo-led squad that plays hard-nosed defense.
Still, will the Spartans overlook the Hawkeyes as Michigan State prepares for an end-of-the-year showdown with rival Michigan? We’ll cover that and our three favorite player prop bets for tonight’s game.
Michigan State Spartans G Jase Richardson UNDER 14.5 Points
It’s rare to see a pair of conference teams this late into the season playing for the first time, but that’s the case with the new-look Big Ten. It could be Iowa’s only chance to play against sensational freshman Jase Richardson as he’s currently considered a potential NBA Lottery pick.
That’s because the 6-foot-3 guard has logged 11.0 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 1.9 assists per game for the Spartans this season. Still, in 12 of his 16 outings in 2025, he’s failed to eclipse 13 points. There’s little reason to believe Iowa will be different, giving bettors confidence he will not cover this player prop bet on Thursday.
Iowa Hawkeyes G Josh Dix UNDER 14.5 Points
Junior Josh Dix has produced strong numbers for the Hawkeyes this season. The Iowa guard is averaging 14.0 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 2.7 assists per outing, increases above his totals during his sophomore year.
The 6-foot-6 player has scored only two points in three previous matchups against the Spartans. Despite Iowa leaning on him for scoring this season, bettors should expect him to fall short of his projected total, failing to cover this scoring prop bet.
Iowa Hawkeyes F Payton Sandfort to Make 3 3-Point Field Goals (+118)
Payton Sandfort is having a strong senior season for the Hawkeyes. The 6-foot-8 forward has team-best averages in both points (16.1) and rebounds (6.2) this season. He’s also adding 3.0 assists each night for Iowa.
Where’s he has dipped this season is his three-point shooting. Sandfort is making just 2.4 three-point field goals per game, and his 33.3 percent shooting is the worst average of his career. Although his shooting touch has been off lately, expect him to recover that touch for this contest and nail at least three shots from behind the arc to cover this player prop bet.
Best Bet: UNDER 153.5 Points
The biggest concern in this contest is motivation for both teams. Iowa needs to win out to have a realistic chance of making the Big Ten tournament as they trail five teams for the 15th seed in the conference.
Further, Michigan State has another chance to beat their in-state rivals – the Wolverines – on Sunday to close out their season and sweep the series ahead of their conference tournament. A win tonight guarantees the Spartans the regular season championship regardless of Sunday’s outcome.
While Michigan State should win, the Spartans have failed to cover this spread in five of their eight prior Big Ten road wins. The safer bet is to take the under as nine of Michigan State’s last 10 games have been under the 153.5-mark to cover this wager.
