Looking ahead to the Sweet 16, Alabama faces the matchup that gives them an incredible number of problems on paper: BYU. In the West Region, Florida against Maryland looks to be a powerhouse matchup on paper, but after passing their toughest test in UConn the Gators could run away with this one.
Finally, Michigan State against Ole Miss is offense against defense. Which guard play will win this unexpected Sweet 16 matchup?
BYU +5 over Alabama
Believe in BYU. Kevin Young is one of the best coaches in college basketball and has turned the Cougars into a powerhouse program… in just one year. Young has the best offense in the tournament led by guards Richie Saunders and Egor Demin. The Russian point guard Demin is playing some of his best basketball of his freshman campaign, scoring 26 points, grabbing 12 boards, and dishing 10 dimes in BYU’s two wins leading into this matchup on Thursday.
Richie Saunders went for 25 points against Wisco on just 16 attempts from the field in his best game of the season. BYU is red-hot, while Alabama has struggled in their own ways in their two March Madness victories, allowing 81 points to 15th seed Robert Morris losing the turnover battle by -3, and then losing the turnover battle again against Saint Mary’s but going on to win that game by 14 points.
BYU is the battle-tested team coming into this game and I believe Alabama has more flaws than people think especially on the defensive end, where BYU’s constant movement and pressure on the rim will win them this game. Remember, Bama allowed 81 to RMU, 104 to Florida, 91 to Auburn, 99 to Florida, and 110 to Missouri all within the last 40 days.
Florida -295 over Maryland
Maryland’s Crab Five led by freshman star Derik Queen has the Terps in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2016. Queen’s buzzer-beater against Colorado State creates one of the more intriguing matchups in the Sweet 16. A star-laden Maryland team against one of the deepest teams in the nation in the Gators.
Todd Golden’s squad was battle-tested against UConn and after that game, I believe they can go all the way. Facing a Terps team that was 51st in strength of schedule and 359th in non-conference strength of schedule including zero games against SEC opponents, this game could get ugly early due to Florida’s more consistent guard play and deep bench that sports three capable big men on both ends of the floor.
I think Will Richard and Alijah Martin are the x-factors here in a Gator victory. Richard and Martin have combined for 57 points, 16 boards, and 12 assists over their two NCAA tournament wins. Not to mention, Walter Clayton Jr. is playing some of the best basketball of his career on offense.
Michigan State -3.5 over Ole Miss
If Michigan State starts out on the right foot, they will win this game with ease. If not, Ole Miss has a chance to go to the Elite Eight for the first time in school history. I think MSU pulls away in this game due to their elite defense and the athleticism of their guards compared to the Rebels’.
Jaden Akins, Tre Holloman, Jase Richardson, and Jeremy Fears haven’t played their best over their two March Madness victories. With that being said, Jaxon Kohler, Coen Carr, and Carson Cooper have all stepped up to fill in the stat sheet in two wins in which the Spartans pulled away in the second half. Ole Miss beat a North Carolina team that shot it 38% from the field, 21% from deep, and 69% from the line.
Iowa State forced just 8 turnovers against the Rebels while getting virtually zero production outside of guard Curtis Jones. While Michigan State’s 3-point percentages are worrying (38.5% against Bryant and 26.7% against New Mexico), Sparty knows how to win games at any pace, against any conference, and with their high energy guards, I think Pedulla and Ole Miss goes home on Friday after a solid tournament run.
