The Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament continues on Friday, March 28th, and we can't wait for some of the outstanding matchups. This piece focuses on Kentucky vs. Tennessee, which should be a remarkable SEC showdown between two long-time rivals.
A trip to the Elite Eight will be on the line when these two programs, who don't like each other, collide on Friday at 7:39 PM Eastern on TBS. After analyzing all relevant metrics, I found a side I like quite a bit. Check that out below, and best of luck if you're riding with me on Friday evening.
Live Odds for Kentucky vs. Tennessee
Most online sportsbooks opened this point spread at Tennessee -5.5 on the look-ahead line on Sunday night. That was a little bit shocking to most people, especially since Kentucky defeated the Vols twice during the regular season. I guess oddsmakers are adapting the "it's hard to beat a good team three times" philosophy.
As you might expect, sharp money has been coming in on Kentucky. The Vols are now down to a 4.5-point favorite as of Wednesday morning. It'll be interesting to see if money continues to show for Kentucky or if there will be some buyback on Tennessee before the opening tip.
As for the total, the Under has been hit quite a bit since Sunday night. The line opened at 146 but most online sportsbooks are hanging 144.5 at the time of this writing. Tennessee has one of the best defenses in the nation, so I'd lean toward the Under if I had to play the total.
Can Kentucky Build off 2 Dominating Wins?
The Wildcats have looked like a team on a mission since the NCAA Tournament started. Mark Pope's bunch made quick work of Troy in Round 1 before disposing of a pretty good Illinois team in the Round of 32. It'll be interesting to see if Kentucky can keep that mojo alive against an archrival.
Koby Brea has scored 36 points through the first two games, so look for Pope to get him more touches against Tennessee. Brea may be the hottest shooter for Kentucky at the moment, but hardcore Big Blue fans know that Otega Oweh and Amari Williams are the most important pieces of the offense.
Kentucky doesn't have a great defense, but they do defend the 3-ball quite well. The Cats rank 24th in three-point defense, and they do a fabulous job of rebounding the basketball. That's mainly thanks to Williams, who leads the team in rebounding (8.6 per game).
Will Tennessee Finally Get Over the Hump?
Tennessee is the better team in this matchup, at least on paper. However, Kentucky seems to have some kind of stranglehold on them this season. It's almost as if the mystique from years gone by of Kentucky being nearly unbeatable is in the heads of these Tennessee players.
All of that being said, the Vols have a tremendous basketball team. Their defense ranks 6th in points allowed and 1st in opponent shooting percentage. Those are numbers that should scare Wildcat fans, even with their plethora of offensive weapons.
Tennessee's offense begins and ends with Chaz Lanier, a gifted scorer who's averaging 18.1 points per game this season. Lanier is the main offensive weapon for the Vols, but he gets ample help from veterans like Zakai Zeigler and Igor Milicic.
Best Bet: Kentucky +4.5
This may sound square, but this is simply too many points to give a Kentucky team that's in great current form. My numbers make Tennessee a one-point favorite on a neutral court. Even if we give the Vols a couple of points because of the revenge angle, there's still lots of value on the Wildcats at +4.5.
Tennessee's defense is stellar, but Kentucky's fast offensive pace should tire the Vols out in the second half of this one. Tennessee is too reliant on Chaz Lanier, and I think that'll be their downfall in this game. I think the Wildcats win outright, but I'll gladly take the points.
More Betting Trends for Kentucky
- Kentucky is 8-6 ATS in '24-25 against ranked opponents.
- Kentucky is 8-4 ATS as an underdog this season.
- Kentucky is 2-0 ATS in NCAA Tournament games this season.
