Iowa vs Nebraska: 3 Player Props and Best Bet for Thursday, March 26

The #9 Iowa Hawkeyes and #4 Nebraska Cornhuskers meet in the NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 on Thursday, March 26 at 7:30 PM ET from Toyota Center in Houston (TBS). This is the third installment of a rivalry series that’s been a dead-even grind all season — and everything points to more of the same.

Game Context

Nebraska enters as a slight favorite at -1.5 (-130 ML), with the total set at 132.5. The two teams split the regular season series — Iowa won 57-52 at home in February, then Nebraska took the rematch 84-75 in overtime on Senior Day in March. Both games were physical, low-tempo affairs, and the numbers back that up: Iowa ranks 361st nationally in adjusted tempo, and Nebraska isn’t much faster.

Nebraska is also dealing with key absences heading into this one. Henry Burt (knee), Connor Essegian (ankle, season-ending), and Ugnius Jarusevicius (back) are all out — leaving the Cornhuskers shorthanded up front.

Player Prop #1: Bennett Stirtz Under 8.5 Rebounds + Assists (+100)

Iowa’s star guard is the engine of the offense, averaging 4.5 assists and 2.5 rebounds per game this season. But Nebraska shuts him down in this matchup specifically. In their two meetings this year, Stirtz combined for just 5 total assists and 7 total rebounds — falling short of this line both times, including the overtime game.

Nebraska’s defensive scheme is built to take away his facilitating, and he’s only cleared this number in 2 of Iowa’s 12 losses this season. At even money, this is strong value.

Player Prop #2: Pryce Sandfort Over 16.5 Points

Nebraska’s second-leading scorer at 17.9 PPG on the season, Sandfort has scored 15 points in each of his last two outings — against Iowa in the regular season and against Vanderbilt in the Round of 32. With three Husker teammates sidelined, Sandfort’s usage rate should climb in this one.

Iowa also surrenders the Big Ten’s highest free throw rate, and Sandfort is an 85% free throw shooter who draws contact. Expect him to cash in at the stripe in a Sweet 16 stage moment.

Player Prop #3: Tavion Banks Over 14.5 Points

Banks has been Iowa’s most reliable interior scorer down the stretch. He erupted for 20 points on 7-of-10 shooting against Florida in the Round of 32, and posted 18 points in the regular season loss at Nebraska. With Burt and Jarusevicius both out, Nebraska’s frontcourt depth is thin — and Banks should feast in the paint.

He’s also shown a strong floor, averaging 4.7 rebounds per game and converting free throws at a high clip when he gets to the line.

Best Bet: Game Total Under 132.5 (-108)

This is the most confident play on the board. Everything in the data points to a low-scoring defensive grind:

• The two regular season meetings averaged just 130 combined points — and one went to overtime, inflating that number
• Nebraska has hit the Under in 19 of their last 25 games
• Iowa has hit the first-half Under in 15 of their last 20 games
• Nebraska’s 6th-ranked adjusted defense nationally gets even more conservative in tournament settings
• The Cornhuskers are missing their frontcourt depth, which typically slows pace further and reduces second-chance scoring opportunities

Neutral-site Sweet 16 games tend to tighten up offensively, and both these teams are built to make life miserable on that end. The Under at -108 is the play.

Quick Reference

• Spread: Nebraska -1.5 (-112) | Iowa +1.5 (-108)
• Moneyline: Nebraska -130 | Iowa +110
• Total: 132.5 (Under -108)
• Tip-off: Thursday, March 26 — 7:30 PM ET
• TV: TBS / truTV
• Venue: Toyota Center, Houston

All lines current as of publication. Verify odds at your preferred sportsbook before wagering. Must be 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.