Illinois vs Michigan State: Odds, Prediction, and Best Bet for Saturday, February 7

As we move closer to March, the College Basketball elites begin to emerge, and the Big Ten has emerged as one of the elite conferences in CBB. Five out of the Top 15 teams in the current AP poll are Big Ten teams, with four out of the top ten spots occupied.

Although that number is likely to drop with Wednesday’s Michigan State loss vs unranked Minnesota, they’ll remain in the top 25. This weekend, we’re getting treated to another Top Ten, in-conference matchup with #5 Illinois traveling to Lansing to take on #10 Michigan State. Let’s take a look at the teams and matchups and see if we can’t make a little money.

Can Illinois Go All the Way?

For the first time in years, Illinois actually feels like a legitimate National Championship contender. In the past, they could score at will but would live or die by the three. If the triples weren’t falling, they’d die out. This team sits at 10th in the country in threes made, and 15th in threes attempted.

Illinois has 5 to 7 guys who can hit the deep ball, but let’s really look at the glue that is freshman phenom known as Keaton Wagler. Wagler went from unranked in the 2025 class to being well on his way to becoming a lottery pick in the upcoming NBA draft. In his last 4 games, he has dropped point totals of 46, 22, 28, and 13 with an average 3PT% of 59%.

It’s pretty obvious that the double teams are becoming more frequent, but he’s continuing to show that if you give him space, he can score. And, good for him leading the NIL jersey sales over the last two weeks. This is probably one of the best stories in the NCAA this season.

Will Michigan State Round into Form Like Usual?

Since we’ve been talking about March, I feel like you can’t mention that month without bringing up Tom Izzo. The guy seems to always find a way to win at the tail end of the season, even if his team is faltering in the regular season. Yes, they’re coming off two straight losses, one of them was to (3) Michigan, so they get a little leeway there, but the loss to Minnesota wasn’t good.

MSU moves the ball around better than almost any team in the country, sitting at 8th in the country in assists. They have two guys who nearly average a double-double every game in Jeremy Fears (14.7 PPG, 8.9 AST) and Jaxon Kohler (12.9 PPG, 9.1 REB). Defensively, they sit at 17th in the country, which bodes very well as we head closer to the end of the season.

Best Bet: Illinois +1.5

On the surface, this might not make a whole lot of sense, but here’s why I think this is the best play. First, I do think Illinois wins this game outright. They’ve won 11 straight, including two road wins against then #4 Purdue and #5 Nebraska.

Michigan State is returning home following a bad road loss to Minnesota, so I’m sure they’ll be hungry to take down the fifth-ranked Illini. As good as Michigan State’s defense is, they give up a lot of three-point attempts and field goals, which plays into Illinois’ hands.

The Illini shoot the three ball as well as anybody in the country, and once they get hot from outside, they can work the ball in and are an absolute nightmare to match up against. This game has the makings of an instant classic, but if it’s basically going to be a pick ‘em, I’m going to ride with one of the best offenses in the NCAA, plus however many points they’re going to give me.