Illinois vs Houston: 3 Best Bets for Thursday, March 26

Out of the many surprises so far during the tournament, this probably isn’t one of them. Illinois travels to Houston to take on Houston in what I think will likely be the game that decides the winner of this portion of the bracket.

This is shaping up to be a shootout, and I am here for it. Because of certain state restrictions on player props, we’ll keep this to just game lines and totals. Everyone can have a good time with it. Without further ado, here are my best bets that I will (responsibly) be throwing a few bucks on for tomorrow night’s matchup.

Saturday, September 5 at 12:00 PM	Spread	Money	Total
Oregon State Beavers	+18.5 (-112)	+800	O 51.5 (102)
Houston Cougars	-18.5 (-112)	-1200	U 50.5 (-110)

Best Bet #1 – OVER 139.5 Total Points (-115 @ BetMGM)

This total, at face value, seems incredibly low to me. Let’s look at why. Houston allows the second fewest points in the country at 62.2 PPG and they don’t put up a ton at 77.5 (136/365). This is essentially a home game for Houston. Where, for the most part, they’re better than their season point average.

The most points they’ve allowed at home this season were 73 to Arizona back on February 21st. During the regular season, Illinois averaged 82 PPG in 14 away and neutral venue games. That number is just shy of their season average of 84.7 (17th out of 365). They allowed 73.4 PPG in the same number of games, 4 Points higher than their 69.4 Season average (61/365).

All that said, Illinois is averaging 90.5 PPG through the first two games of the tournament, while giving up 62.5. Houston is averaging 83 PPG, while giving up 52. If all those trends continue, and they should, this over should be smashed with 5-7 minutes left in the game.

Best Bet #2 – First Half Spread: Houston -1.5 (-115 @ BetMGM)

Illinois has been a team where if they get off to a hot start, they’re hard to compete with. That’s a big IF when playing this Houston squad. This is a Kelvin Sampson team that unlike previous years, knows how to play strong defensively.

Illinois does have one of the tallest starting fives in college basketball, but their “Live or Die by the Three” mentality can get them in trouble against a team like Houston who can rotate well with the ball.

I don’t know that we’ll see Illinois get off to the hot start that we’ve seen so far in the tournament. So, I, along with 96% of the bettors on BetMGM as of this moment, like Houston to go into halftime with at least a two-point lead.

Best Bet #3 – Illinois Moneyline +135 @ BetMGM

Illinois has the firepower to keep up with the best in the country. They’ve proved that time and time again, and while Houston is who many consider to be the team to beat in this bracket, Illinois is the only team left IMO that can do it.

The Illini have 7 guys who can knock down the three. Keaton Wagler has shown maturity throughout the last few games by distributing the ball when he needs to instead of forcing shots. David Mirkovic has been fantastic to watch so far in the tournament and I think that trend continues against Houston.

I expect Illinois to attack early, while kicking the ball out to their shot makers, trying to get Houston’s bigs into foul trouble. If that happens, and if Illinois is knocking down their shots, this game might get out of hand.

That’s a perfect world for this guy, who has Illinois going to the final four in his bracket, but it’s also realistic. If Illinois is hitting their shots, it’s going to be a long night in Houston and a quick drive home for Sampson and the Cougars.