We suffered a couple of bad beats last Friday, but we're still 37-29 with our college basketball player props. It's never a good feeling when you lose by the hook, but when you lose two bets by the hook in the same night it's even more painful. I'm not usually one to complain about bad beats, but I have to vent a minute about our Under ticket on Daron Holmes of Dayton.
Our U22.5 points bet on Holmes was looking fine and dandy the majority of the game. The Flyers big man had just 8 points at the half and was on pace to finish with less than 20 points the entire second half. Of course, the game went into OT, and we were cooked. To add insult to injury, VCU committed a meaningless foul with 1 second left in the game and Holmes sunk both free throws to finish with exactly 23 points and burn our Under wager.
Needless to say, the weekend off did us some good! Let's shake it off and move on! Here's what's on tap for Monday, March 11.
Augustas Marciulionis (St. Mary's) Under 14.5 Points (-110) (DraftKings)
Look, we get that Santa Clara's defense is nothing to write home about. That being said, the Broncos aren't too terrible on the defensive end either. Santa Clara ranks 61st in opponent effective field goal percentage, so the matchup favors an Under for Marciulionis in this West Coast Conference semifinal game.
Marciulionis is a solid guard, but St. Mary's has a very deep backcourt and the 6'4" Lithuanian can sometimes get lost in the shuffle. For the season, Marciulionis's median point total is just 11. He's scored 14 points or less in 20 of his 31 ball games this season.
Current form also favors the Under, as Marciulionis has stayed Under this point total in 6 of his last 8 outings. Marciulionis also only takes around 9 field goal attempts per game, so he'd have to shoot at a pretty high rate to bust this Under. Let's roll with it!
Graham Ike (Gonzaga) Under 8.5 Rebounds (-110) (DraftKings)
Ike's an imposing figure for Gonzaga at 6'9" and 245 pounds, so it's hard to fade him in the rebounding department. As usual though, we're going to follow the mathematical edges, for better or worse. Ike is only averaging 7.3 rebounds per game this season and his median rebounding number is just below that at 7.
The former Wyoming Cowboy has grabbed 8 rebounds or fewer in 21 of his 30 contests during the '23-24 campaign. Ike has also stayed under this rebounding total in 6 of his last 8 games. Anytime the mean, median, and trends work in our favor, we like our chances.
Sure, the matchup isn't ideal for Ike to stay Under. Gonzaga ranks 35th in overall rebounding while San Francisco ranks just 243rd. That being said, San Fran ranks 7th in rebounds allowed. Ike played San Fran twice during the regular season, only grabbing 7 boards in each contest. Play the Under!
