Welcome back college basketball fans! We have a fantastic slate of games today with 12 ranked teams on the board, and a ton of high-profile matches.
As conference play kicks into gear, it only ratchets up the pressure and intensity in these matchups. We have 7 of the top 10 teams playing tonight, will we see #1 Tennessee, or #2 Auburn go down on the road tonight?
Kentucky is coming back home, looking to build off an impressive road win at Mississippi State, winning 95-90. Their last home game also saw them put up 106 against undefeated Florida, at the time, and I do think Florida is a better team than Texas A&M.
We saw what Florida did to Tennessee, and though that was a tough spot for Tennessee, it shows how good Florida can be. Texas A&M does lead the country in offensive rebounds, but Florida should be able to hang with them, ranking 26th by KenPom at allowing opposing offensive rebounds.
If Kentucky can hang on the glass, they have a far bigger advantage on the offensive end and at the charity stripe. Per KenPom, A&M ranks #259 in effective FG%, while Kentucky’s defense ranks #63 at holding teams to 47.8%, under A&M's average. They also rank #286 in 3P% and #215 at 2P%. I believe A&M is going to struggle to keep up on the offensive end and the free throw discrepancy, 69% to 74% could be the difference.
My model loved this play today as most lines on sportsbooks were +13 and +13.5, while my model has this a 9.5 and 10-point game. A couple of statistics pushed this to a client play for me. Last season these two played, it was a 2-point game, 63-61, and this time around we are looking at a total of 139.
I believe that total is telling as I believe, and my model does as well, that this game has a chance to go under. If we see under 139, I am very confident W. Michigan can keep this within 13 points.
W. Michigan has covered this line in 4 games on the road this season, while Kent State has failed to cover 13 in 3/6 at home and their last 2 games. Kent State has also not impressed me at home this season and tend to play down to their competition a bit. They lost to #267 ranked Ball State, beat a non-ranked team by 4, and beat #305 Niagara by 3. Take the points here!
My Best Bets:
1% - Kentucky -5 (-130) HardRock
1% - Western Michigan +13 (-110) Bet365
Follow EatWatchBet on Google News to stay updated with our latest stories! Click the icon, and our betting picks and tips will be added to your Google News feed.
Top Flight Wagers has several years of experience in the sports betting industry and currently operates their own handicapping business. They're successful in all sports but specializes in UFC and Golf for EatWatchBet. Find them on X @TopFlightWagers