A Big 12 team and two rival Big 10 squads lead our list for best Final Four bets with value behind them. Auburn and Duke are the favorites to make the final stage of play in San Antonio, but with around -150 odds between the two of them, who else might sneak their way through their bracket and into San Antonio?
The Houston Cougars are shooting lights out from beyond the arc and might have the best resume among any team not named Auburn, while the Wisconsin Badgers and Michigan Wolverines are getting hot at the right time behind their unconventional rosters and level-headed coaching.
Houston Cougars (+150) (BetMGM)
Kelvin Sampson has been the Houston Cougars coach since 2014. It is safe to say that this might be his best all-around team. The Cougars last made the Final Four in 2021, losing to the eventual champion Baylor by 19 points. Outside of the 2nd seeded Cougars' first round victory, they failed to score 70+ points en route to their Final Four appearance.
Flash forward to their Elite Eight and two Sweet Sixteen runs in the last three seasons and that has been the issue for Sampson… consistent offense. This year has been different, though. Wins in Tucson against Arizona, Lawrence against Kansas, and Lubbock against Texas Tech have proved that this squad might be the best of the bunch over the last decade of Sampson’s rule.
Houston has four rotation players shooting 40% or better from beyond the arc. This offense is 19th in the nation in efficiency, 2nd in 3-point percentage, and similar to Sampson’s previous squads, 1st in points allowed. This is the most complete Houston team we have seen and that’s going to be the difference in March.
Wisconsin Badgers (+800) (BetMGM)
Moving down the list to the ‘great value’ teams (sorry Duke and Auburn), two Big 10 teams jump out at me. The Wisconsin Badgers have a team full of veterans, and similar to Houston, shoot and defend really well.
Wins against Arizona, Purdue, and Illinois don’t prove to be the best resume in the nation but have been enough to warrant Wisconsin a top 15 ranking amidst their 22-6 season. While the Big 10 tournament will tell us a lot about this team, senior transfer John Tonje is a legit bucket getter. Remember when the Badgers made two straight Final Fours behind Sam Dekker’s scoring.
Tonje is that kind of player that can put the team on his back in big moments. 31 points against Illinois, 33 points against Pitt, 41 points with 21 free throws against Arizona. Tonje scores at all three levels and can get a bucket against anyone in the nation. Not to mention, the Badgers are deep. They play nine players 10+ MPG this season and have two veteran bigs providing a presence down low with high IQ between Steven Crowl and Nolan Winter. At +800 odds, this is a team to keep your eye on.
Michigan Wolverines (+1300) (FanDuel)
Vlad Goldin, Danny Wolf, Trey Donaldson, and Dusty May. This Michigan Wolverine team has as good of a chance to make the Final Four as any team in the nation in my eyes. Backcourt scoring and playmaking to the overloading frontcourt of Goldin and Wolf, this southpaw team led by the incredible coaching of Dusty May has rallied off 21 wins thus far.
Wins against Xavier, Wisconsin, UCLA, Oregon, and Purdue has put this team inside the top 15 in the nation and with a nice Big 10 Tournament showing, could end up as a top two or three seed. The 7’0 frontcourt of Wolf and Goldin is unlike any in the nation and that duo is averaging 28.3 PPG, 16.2 RPG, and 4.8 APG alongside a handful of stocks.
With junior guard Tre Donaldson at the head of this offense, Michigan is the team to beat in the Big 10 in my mind and on March 9th we will find out a lot in their game against rival Michigan State.
