3 College Basketball Best Bets for Saturday, December 13

We have some great matchups on deck for week 6 of NCAAM. A quick nugget for you to pay attention to going forward: for the last 15 years, every NCAAM tournament winner has been in the top 12 of the AP poll in week six.

I’m a big fan of teams playing meaningful games early, so we don’t have to wait until March for some exciting basketball. Let’s get into some of the Top 25 matchups for Saturday.

(8) Gonzaga Bulldogs at (25) UCLA Bruins

I feel like Gonzaga is one of those teams that’s either going to make it to the Final Four or barely scrape into the NCAA tournament. I can’t really tell yet which team this is. At 9-1, they average 93 PPG and give up 65. Both top 30 in the Nation.

Their only loss was an absolute schlacking to Michigan, who seem poised to make a deep run come March. UCLA at 7-2 stacks up with Gonzaga defensively, but offensively, they don’t put up anywhere close to the same numbers. If I have to lean any way in this matchup, it’s going to be towards the team that’s averaging 93 PPG.

Best Bet: Gonzaga -8.5 (BetRivers)

(17) Arkansas Razorbacks at (16) Texas Tech Red Raiders

These teams come in like their rankings, very similar in a lot of ways. Arkansas’ two losses on the season were to (4) Duke and (22) Michigan State, and both by less than ten points. Texas Tech’s two losses were to (14) Illinois and (1) Purdue.

The Purdue loss was a beatdown, so I guess that’s one difference. Still, both of these teams are very similar except in two key factors. Arkansas has a +6 PPG difference, while Texas Tech’s SOS is 9th compared to Arkansas’ 54th.

With this game opening as essentially a pick ‘em, I’m on a coin flip, and I really don’t like a 1.5 point spread, so with both teams averaging about the over and both giving up points, let’s root for and play the points.

Best Bet: Over 151.5

(1) Arizona Wildcats at (12) Alabama Crimson Tide

Without a doubt, this is the game of the weekend. The Arizona Wildcats come into this game as the one seed. Although there is some debate in the CBB world about whether it should be them or Michigan, doesn’t matter.

We still all win with a 1 v 12 matchup this early on. Let’s break down the numbers, though, and see where we can find value. PPG: Alabama at 95. Points Allowed per Game: Arizona at 67. Tougher SOS: Alabama. W/L vs Top 25 teams: Arizona at 4-0, Alabama at 2-2.

To me, this game comes down to the guards. Which is typically how I’ve always picked my brackets. I think Arizona has a real advantage in the front court, but if Alabama’s guards get hot from three, look out. Alabama puts up points, and I don’t know if Arizona’s backcourt is enough to slow down the backcourt of the Tide.

Best Bet: Over 173.5