UFC Vegas 107 Betting Preview: Predictions for Saturday, May 31

The UFC returns to the Apex this weekend following an off week, and while this card doesn’t boast the biggest names, we should have a good amount of action. In the main event at women’s flyweight, #4 ranked Erin Blanchfield faces #5 Macy Barber in a clash of rising contenders looking to make their case for a title shot.

In the co-main event, Mateusz Gamrot faces a downright dog in Ludovit Klein, in what could be the fight of the night. Klein looks to have all the tools to make a run in the division, while Gamrot looks to bounce back from his last loss and slow Klein’s winning streak.

Parlay: Zachary Reese ML + Billy Ray Goff ML (-124, FanDuel)

Reese has a clear finishing upside in his matchup against Dusko Todorovic, especially early on. He can crack Todorovic on the feet, and if it gets to the mat, it could be over quick. Reese holds a 55% takedown accuracy while averaging 3.5 takedowns per fight, and I am not sure Todorovic, with his 45% takedown defense, can keep Reese off him. I do not expect this fight to go the distance as both fighters have finishing abilities, but I expect Reese to bounce back from his most recent loss, he has shown durability issues and a tendency to get overwhelmed in fast-paced fights.

Goff, meanwhile, draws Ramiz Brahimaj, whose cardio and striking defense remain major concerns. Brahimaj was given a layup in his last fight against Mickey Gall, but before his KO of Gall, Gall had equally traded strikes with him. If he tries to stand and strike with Goff, he could be in for a long night.

Goff’s pressure and well-rounded game give him a path to either outlast or break down Brahimaj over time. Goff averaged 8.56 significant landed strikes per minute compared to the 2.26 for Brahimaj. He holds a 59% striking defense to Brahimaj 43%, and Goff has the better takedowns and takedown defense.

Erin Blanchfield Win by Decision (+100, FanDuel)

While Barber has improved her takedown defense and offensive output, Blanchfield’s grappling and control should allow her to dictate where this fight goes. She can get hit, but she can grapple and control time on her opponents.

I expect this to be a good match as Barber is tough and resilient, while also fighting a good list of competition. Barber is the better striker, but Blanchfield should have more output on the feet; she should be the one putting on more pressure, and I trust her to take over in the later rounds.

Parlay: Vieira/Chiasson Over 1.5 Rounds + Jordan Leavitt ML (-152, Bet365)

Ketlen Vieira and Macy Chiasson are both experienced and durable fighters. I expect this fight to see the 3rd round, so using over 1.5 as a juice reducer I really love. Vieira has gone to 7 straight decisions, and even though Chiasson has found finishes in recent fights Vieira is too experienced to get caught early. It should be a good battle for a full 2-3 rounds.

Leavitt, on the other hand, matches up with Kurt Holobaugh in a stylistic clash where his awkward rhythm and grappling advantage could be enough to stifle Holobaugh’s experience and volume. If this stays on the feet, no doubt Leavitt could be in trouble, but with Leavitt the much younger and hungrier fighter I expect him to find a bound back win.

Leavitt’s 2 losses have been to Paddy Pimblet and Chase Hooper, both very good losses. I believe Leavitt will be relentless on takedowns, finding a way to enter the void and take Kurts back in this fight.