Following a fantastic UFC 315 PPV, UFC returns to Las Vegas. This weekend’s UFC Vegas 106 card is headlined by a clash of styles and generations as veteran welterweight Gilbert Burns takes on fast-rising contender Michael Morales.
Burns, perhaps his last year with UFC, has given us tough battles over the years and is always a threat on the mat. He returns to action looking to give Morales his first loss of the season, and undefeated fighters have not fared well in 2025.
Morales, at just 25 years old, brings an undefeated record and a blend of speed, athleticism, and confidence that has him marked as one of the division’s most promising fighters. He has not faced someone as experienced as Gilbert. For Burns, this is a chance to remind fans why he was once fighting for a title and to show he has something left.
Thiago Moises ML (+110)
This matchup between Thiago Moises and Jared Gordon should be up there for fight of the night and should be close. Moises offers the more dangerous skill set if he gets it all going. Gordon has looked solid recently despite his 2-2-1 record, and if there were different judges he could easily have 2 more wins. He brings a high pace, strong wrestling, and is very tough, but he also lacks a chin, which must hold up in this fight.
Moises is a slick and poised grappler who not only threatens with submissions but can also strike when he needs to and he uses his low kicks well and he can manage range to avoid danger. Gordon may have more output, but I do believe Moises has more paths to victory with his ability to control the fight, with more finishing upside, especially at plus money!
Denise Gomes & Melquizael Costa Parlay (-118)
Denise Gomes continues to prove herself as a tough, durable striker who thrives in gritty battles. A solid bet here would be to win by finish as 6 of her 10 wins have come by TKO. Elise Reed has all 4 losses by finishes, so don’t overlook Gomes by a sneaky submission.
She’s hittable, but she should be able to press forward and land more volume and damage on Elise. With Reed’s takedown defense of 56% Gomes may look to get her on the ground and look for damage on the mat. I believe Gomes will find a finish at some point in this fight.
Melquizael Costa faces Julian Erosa, a fighter with big tools but an inconsistent record. Both of these fighters have been active in 2025, and both are on quick turnarounds. Erosa is taller but they both have the same reach. Erosa will always be dangerous in every fight with his submission skills, but he is very hittable.
Erosa absorbs 6.21 significant strikes per minute compared to Costa. Costa is explosive, creative, and very active in scrambles. Even if Erosa gets this to the ground or controls moments, Costa’s ability to reverse or return to his feet could be the difference. On the feet, Costa's sharp combinations and movement should give him the clear edge in this fight.
Nursulton Ruziboev & Melquizael Costa Parlay (+123)
Costa is an anchor this week as I just believe he will find the best of Erosa for however long that fight lasts. Nursulton Ruziboev might be one of the most physically imposing prospects at middleweight.
At 6’5”, with an ability to knock you out, or submit you, he’s a stylistic nightmare. As long as he manages his cardio, he is a threat against most fighters in the division. He has won 3 of his last 4 fights by KO/TKO.
Against Dustin Stoltzfus, who may be a live bet if this thing goes to deep waters is well-rounded, but chinny and inconsistent, Ruziboev’s size, power, and finishing ability pose a serious threat here for an early finish. Stoltzfus can be competitive, but he’s outmatched physically and likely can’t take the kind of shots Ruziboev will be throwing.
