The UFC heads to Saudi Arabia with a stacked Fight Night card this Saturday! With 11 fights on the card, let's take a look at some best bets to place before the fights kick off at a special start time of 12 PM EST.
Best Prop: Magomed Gadzhiyasulov vs. Brendson Ribeiro to Start Rd 2. +125 (DraftKings)
I love jumping on these plus numbers if there's potential for grappling. Gadzhiyasulov shot 7 takedowns in his Contender Series matchup against a KO or bust opponent and will now make his debut as the heavy favorite this Saturday.
Ribeiro will present a similar threat that Gadzhiyasulov saw in his last fight, with 9 of his 15 wins coming by TKO. Gadzhiyasulov has some kickboxing of his own, but I think we see the first 5 filled with him trying to slow down the Brazilian, who's known to start fast.
Top Undercard Play: Johnny Walker ML -110
Walker will make his return after an early 2024 loss to future title contender Magomed Ankalaev. Walker suffered a nasty looking TKO loss to Ankalaev but had stolen the first round before the TKO occurred in the next.
Across from him this week will be previous number-one contender Volkan Oezdemir. Counting his 2018 title shot loss, he's lost 6 of his last 10 and has only one respectable win against Aleksandar Rakic in that time (split decision).
Oezdemir will be the more technical striker of the two, but I think Walker will turn in a great performance coming off a loss, similar to his two wins after being stopped by Jamahal Hill in 2022.
He'll be the bigger and more dangerous fighter, and Oezdemir has looked too hittable since suffering a bad KO loss to Jiri Procházka. I give Walker both the finish and damage upside, so I'll side with him at the pick em' line.
Top Parlay: Sergei Pavlovich ML AND Kelvin Gastelum vs. Daniel Rodriguez o1.5 -132 (Bet365)
We're busting out the chalk for this week's parlay, but I love these two pieces for this playable price.
Pavlovich will take on former training partner Alexander Volkov in the co-main. Volkov is used to using both his height and reach advantage at Heavyweight to stay out of power punch range. He's been able to combine both his physical tools and wrestling to stay relevant in the division.
Because he uses his reach and height defensively, he's constantly moving backward and has been put in bad spots because of it. Something that a dangerous Pavlovich will take advantage of. Pavlovich marches forward as soon as the fight starts and will have the reach advantage here.
Unless Volkov can use his wrestling, I don't think he deals with Pavlovich's pressure well. Pavlovich seems to be in excellent shape and should catch Volkov at some point here.
Our over play is a juiced number, so I won't give you too much backstory on it besides that 7/10 for Rodriguez has gone over 1.5, while 8 out of the last 10 for Gastelum done the same.
Usually, when two southpaws meet, there is a buffering period of hand slapping. Add that these two should come out with similar game plans and I think we see a fight that goes well over 1.5.
Main Event Play: Robert Whittaker ML -148
Whittaker returns to action on Saturday when he takes on short notice replacement Ikram Aliskerov in the 5-round main event.
Aliskerov was originally scheduled to be on last week's Apex card but found out a day before weigh-ins that he would be competing on the other side of the globe against the former Middleweight champ.
Aliskerov has potential in the division, but the short-notice nature could impact his performance. Additionally, he's never had a 5-round fight and has only been to a 3-round decision 4 times in his 16-fight career.
Meanwhile, Whittaker has gone 5 rounds 5 times in his career and has been preparing for a similar heavy wrestling style that Aliskerov should lean on. The longer this one stays on the feet, the more I expect Whittaker to distance himself on the scorecards. This feels like too much too soon for Aliskerov.
