The UFC is back in Paris with an amazing card, to say the least. I have been amped up to see a handful of these fights since UFC Noche ended. We have been on a great run in UFC all year and I am looking forward to that continuing this weekend as well!
We have Benoit Saint-Denis facing Money Moicano in the main event, and I believe we will see some fireworks on this card! Let's get into the breakdowns!
Cutabela Will Get This to the Ground
Boy, this is a scary one to bet on, but I am trusting Cutabela to avoid the KO blow early and to weather any type of onslaught coming his way. He has the clear advantage on the ground, and if he can get this to the mat, Erslan can be in a world of trouble. We have seen Erslan in previous fights look completely out of place when he's taken to the mat.
Cutabela also gets to welcome Erlsan into his first UFC fight this weekend. Historically, new fighters win less than 50% of the time and the ones that do win are straight killers. I do not see Erlsan in that same light.
He can find the finish with Cutabela’s weak chin, and I think he will be dangerous later in his career, but this should be a learning lesson for him that you need to be good in more than 1 area. Cutabela holds a 4.17 takedown average with 4.44 significant strikes landed per minute and I think he does enough to eke out a victory.
Battle Find a Way & We Go 1.5!
I absolutely love Bryan Battle in this spot versus a very solid Kevin Jousset. Coming off a No Decision contest, and 2 previous wins, Battle is looking to get back to the winner's column. He pressures forward at an insane pace and loves to bring action to the fight.
Jousset in only his 3rd UFC fight (2-0), now gets his toughest test yet. Jousset brings heavy striking volume, but Battle is excellent at absorbing less than 4 significant strikes per minute because he is usually the one pressing forward. If this gets to the ground, I trust Battle enough to avoid damage and possibly to a little of his own.
Ailin Perez’s last 3 fights have gone to a decision, while Daria Zhelezniakova’s first UFC fight went the distance and 2 of her last 4 fights have gone past 1.5. I favor Perez to get the win here, and if she does, I believe it will go to the judges, or she gets a late finish.
I love pairing the women’s UFC o1.5 round props as juice reducers, they have hit at a remarkable 87% when they have been used this year! Perez averages 5.19 takedowns and if she can exploit that again, while avoiding striking exchanges, this should help push us into the later rounds that we need.
Best Bets for UFC Paris
- Cutelaba ML (+100)
- 2-Leg Parlay (-109): Battle ML + Perez/Zhelezniakova o1.5 Rounds
- Bonus Bet: 3-Leg Parlay (-131): Sy ML + Klein ML + Saint-Denis ML
