UFC Mexico City: Prediction and DFS Picks for Saturday, February 28

UFC returns to Mexico City, headlined by former champion Brandon Moreno as he takes on rising prospect Lone’er Kavanagh. The card features a lot of heavy favorites, so picking the value spots this week may be tricky.

In this preview, we break down the main event, a highly anticipated flyweight matchup between Chairez and Bunes, and break down our top 2-man slip on Underdog. Let’s get into the numbers.

Main Event Breakdown: Brandon Moreno vs. Lone’er Kavanagh

Brandon Moreno enters the fight with a 23-9-2 record with an average fight time of 16:37, which shows his championship-level experience, durability, and cardio. He lands 3.89 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 3.62 with 60% striking defense. He also adds in 1.47 takedowns per 15 minutes with 64% takedown defense. A stat profile that will win you a lot of fights.

Kavanagh comes in at 9-1, offering quickness and power at the flyweight division. He lands 4.29 significant strikes per minute at 49% accuracy. He also averages 1.79 takedowns per 15 minutes and defends 88% of attempts, which displays the caliber of fighter he is projected to be. However, this is a massive step up in competition. Yes, Moreno is aged with fight years, but Moreno has faced elite fighters over multiple five-round fights.

The biggest edge is experience and fight IQ. Moreno has been to the deep waters against top-tier competition, while Kavanagh is still proving himself. All Moreno needs to do is avoid the power KO shot and outwork this kid. We saw Kavanaugh tire out in his previous fight. Moreno can absolutely push the pace on this kid and wear him down. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Moreno jump his back for a submission after round 2.

Prediction: Brandon Moreno ML (parlay piece)

Flyweight Matchup: Edgar Chairez vs Felipe Bunes

Edgar Chairez enters at 12-6-0 and brings an aggressive style that thrives in chaos. As one of my favorite Mexican fighters on the roster, he lands 3.44 significant strikes per minute at 44% accuracy. He can also put in work on the ground; he averages 1.7 submission attempts per 15 minutes, which makes him dangerous in chaos.

Felipe Bunes is 14-8 and has the skills to compete with a lot of fighters on the roster. He lands his strikes at 50% accuracy while averaging 1.13 takedowns per 15 minutes. The interesting thing about this fight is that both fighters absorb more significant strikes than they dish out. Both absorb over four significant strikes per minute, and both have average fight times of just under nine minutes, which shows both can withstand a 1st round finish.

On DraftKings, they offer Same Game Parlay options like minutes and seconds. The over 5.5 minutes gives us slightly better odds than over 4.5 minutes, a difference of -115 to -135. If you don’t use Draft Kings, the next best option is FanDuel, pairing Chairez with Fight to Start 2nd Round (-133).

I believe both of these options align with the fighters’ durability and pace. We should see some violent exchanges here; we just need to hope these guys can stay composed for five minutes and thirty seconds.

Best Bet: Edgar Chairez ML + Over 5.5 Minutes (-115, DraftKings)

Underdog Fantasy 2-Leg Slip

Santiago Luna Higher 0.5 Finishes + Brandon Moreno Higher 92.99 Fantasy Points (New Scoring)

Santiago Luna, an exciting prospect in his second UFC fight lands 5.36 significant strikes per minute and faces an opponent who absorbs a massive 11.47 per minute with 41% defense while also adding a 28% takedown defense. If this fight stays standing and Pacheco can’t make this ugly early, Luna’s KO upside becomes a real threat.

Luna is 7-0 with 3 KO wins and 4 Submission wins, facing Angel Pacheco who has more experience in the UFC, and has never been finished, with a 7-3 overall record. Luna has his work cut out for him, but if he can stay aggressive, he can take advantage of Pacheco’s poor defensive metrics.

For Moreno, the five-round structure and the opportunity to find a finish become a legit threat. Looking at the new scoring format for Underdog, significant strikes are worth 0.2 points each, a decision win adds 30 points, knockdowns are worth 10, and takedowns are 5 each.

Over five rounds, Moreno’s pace, cardio, and scrambling ability should allow him the opportunity to find 100+ significant strikes, while also adding in takedowns with control time, a possible knockdown or two, and if he can find a finish, bonus points add up real fast.