UFC returns to Atlanta, Georgia this Saturday for what could be an exciting card full of finishes! Live from State Farm Arena, headlined by a welterweight battle between Joaquin Buckley and the returning champ, Kamaru Usman. The co-main event features former champion Rose Namajunas as she takes on Miranda Maverick as both women look to take the next step in the division.
Prelims kick off at 7:00 PM ET, with the main card starting at 10:00 PM ET. While we have some solid names on this card, solid value was hard to find. A lot of favorites are heavily juiced, and both women’s fights to go o2.5 rounds/distance are juiced, making 2-leg parlays difficult to get under -175.
Main & Co-Main Storylines
Joaquin Buckley enters this bout with momentum and bring athletic speed and knockout power to the cage. Against a former champion like Usman, who hasn’t fought since his loss to Chimaev in October of 2023,, Buckley faces a test in durability and experience. Buckley’s speed and explosiveness should be the difference here. If he doesn’t find the KO early, Buckley still has the gas tank and fight IQ to grind out a decision.
In the co-main, Rose Namajunas returns looking to build momentum in the flyweight division after a l5 round loss to Erin Blanchfield. Her opponent, Miranda Maverick, is tough and grappling-heavy, but Rose’s championship-level experience and striking should give her the edge, and she can also grapple as well!
Laddering the Finish – Malcolm Wellmaker vs Kris Moutinho
● Fight Ends in Round 1 (+100, Bet365)
● Fight Ends in Round 2 (+250, Bet365)
Wellmaker is the heavy favorite and likely to find a finish in R1 or R2. He entered his UFC debut hot with a KO finish, he’s aggressive, powerful, and undefeated.
But Moutinho, who’s more experienced, is known for his toughness and grit. Instead of targeting a specific outcome, the safer angle is betting the fight to end in R1 or R2, regardless of who wins. The odds are the exact same if we bet Wellmaker to finish inside each round, so why not take this angle instead!
Laddering the Finish – Abdul-Malik vs Cody Brundage
● Fight Ends in Round 1 (-110, Bet365)
● Fight Ends in Round 2 (+230, Bet365)
Abdul-Malik is 8-0 with all 8 wins by finish. Brundage, while more seasoned, has seen 13 of his 17 fights end inside the distance. Whether Malik finds the stoppage or Brundage surprises, this one likely won’t see the third round. I do like a play on Malik KO in round 1 and round 2, but again for these odds, I like this look a tad better. Undefeated fighters going against experience fighters, have not had much luck the last two seasons!
Jamey-Lyn Horth by Decision + Joaquin Buckley Double Chance(KO/Decision) (+102, Bet365)
Jamey-Lyn Horth’s four UFC fights have all gone to decision, and opponent Vanessa Demopoulos has only been finished once in her career. Fight to go distance and o2.5 rounds are over -300 and I believe both cash, with Horth getting her hand raised. She is coming off a loss to Miranda Maverick and I expect a bounce back win. Combine that with Buckley’s power and versatility, he could end this fight with a KO or grind out a decision win.
Additional Plays to Consider
Odds are tight this week, and value is hard to come by so props and selective parlays are the way to go. Here are a couple other juicier plays I am on. I am staking my flag on Buckley this week!
● Buckley ML + Horth ML (-164, Fanduel)
● Buckley ML + Bellato ML (-152, Fanduel)
● Ricky Simon ML + Raoni Barcelos ML (-130, Bet365)
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