UFC Fight Night Paris: Top DFS Picks for Imavov vs Borralho on September 6

The UFC returns to Paris this weekend with a card that promises fireworks inside the Accor Arena. French talent will be front and center, headlined by a middleweight clash between Nassourdine Imavov and Caio Borralho, two fighters looking to climb to the top of the division.

The card also features several local prospects, intriguing stylistic matchups, and plenty of betting opportunities to make money this weekend! Let’s get into it.

Main Event: Nassourdine Imavov vs. Caio Borralho

This is a fascinating matchup between two surging middleweights. Nassourdine Imavov is a patient, calculated striker who uses his length and composure to dismantle opponents. Fighting out of Paris, he has shown poise under pressure, excellent counter-striking, and an ability to control distance. His last performance, knocking out legend Izzy Adesanya, was very impressive and shows he still has more to prove. Imavov showed just how sharp his boxing and shot selection have become. Imavov thrives when the fight stays technical and at range.

On the other side, Caio Borralho represents a tricky puzzle. The Brazilian is undefeated in the UFC, blending solid grappling, clinch control, and a very strong top game. While he hasn’t faced as many ranked opponents, Borralho’s consistency, cardio, and ability to dictate pace make him a live threat against anyone in the division. He leans on pressure and doesn’t mind dragging fights into slower, grinding exchanges where he can neutralize his opponent’s strengths. I expect this fight to hit the mat, where we will see who can really control with strength and sheer will.

The key to this fight comes down to whether Borralho can close the distance and turn this into a clinch-heavy affair or whether Imavov keeps the fight at striking range. If Imavov can stay disciplined behind his jab, he should find openings and win rounds, taking the home victory as a + money dog.

While the main event is compelling, much of the betting value lies deeper on the card. Here are my favorite underdog spots for Saturday’s card.

3.15x Payout – Two-Leg Parlay

Andreas Gustafson Higher Than 59.5 Significant Strikes vs. Rinat Fakhretdinov

This is a volume-based play. Gustafson lands almost 6 significant strikes per minute, and I expect Rinat to be there to be hit. Rinat has allowed 107, 66, and 75 to his last three opponents. Gustafson took out Pytlik in DWCS with 38 strikes, following that up with 98 vs Khaos Williams.

I expect this fight to at least see the 3rd round with two very tough and durable fighters. I expect strikes to pile up if we can see late second into the third. Gustafson doesn’t need to dominate, he just needs to stay active and let his jab and combinations add up.

Axel Sola Lower Than 2.5 Takedowns vs. Rhys McKee

Sola is another French prospect with a grappling base, but this matchup doesn’t lend itself to wrestling-heavy success. McKee is a long, rangy striker who thrives at distance, and his improved takedown defense makes it unlikely Sola will land three or more takedowns.

Even if Sola attempts them, McKee’s frame and ability to create scrambles should keep this number at 2 or less, yes, he has been taking down more than this in two previous fights, but he knows what he’s up against and his success will be greater if this stays on the feet.

3x Payout – Two-Leg Parlay

Brad Tavares Lower Than 52.5 Significant Strikes vs. Robert Bryczek

Tavares is a veteran known for his durability and experience, but he isn’t a high-volume striker at this stage of his career, going under in three of his last five fights. Against a younger, aggressive opponent like Bryczek, he may spend more time reacting and countering than racking up significant output.

I like Bryczek as an underdog here and the only way Tavares goes over this is if this goes deep and I have a hunch Robert may end this fight before Brad can find 53 significant strikes. Tavares often looks to stay defensively sound and manage the fight’s tempo, which makes the under a sharp angle.

Bolaji Oki Higher Than 49.5 Significant Strikes vs. Mason Jones

Oki enters this fight hitting this line in two of his last three fights, hitting 136 in his last fight. He also comes into this fight with a chip on his shoulder, eager to prove he belongs in the UFC. They gave him a tough opponent in Mason Jones.

Oki’s style is pressure-heavy, throwing in volume and forcing exchanges. Mason Jones is durable, so this fight projects to have extended stand-up exchanges. Oki’s output should push him beyond 50 significant strikes, especially if he can keep Jones on the back foot. Three of Jones’ last five opponents have covered this line against him, all three went to the third round.