UFC Fight Night: Odds, Predictions, and Top Parlay for Saturday, March 15

UFC Fight Night is back this Saturday night with a Part #2 headlining the main event, and a bunch of betting landmines from bottom to top of this card! Books have decided to juice a ton of favorites this week, and a couple of them are on their UFC debut!

My suggestion is to be very careful with fighters on their UFC debut, especially ones juiced +300 and more. Even with a fairly lame UFC card, we have found a couple spots to play, and an Underdog Slip to run!

Waldo Finds a Way

Waldo Cortes-Acosta is facing Ryan Spann who is moving up to heavyweight for this fight, and I don’t believe Spann will find it here. Acosta should be able to survive round 1, and if he gets to rounds 2 and 3, he should win the fight.

Waldo can pressure Spann, find him with his strikes, where he lands over 5 significant strikes per minute, and wear Spann out. Acosta could find a KO in this bout but wouldn’t be shocked if we go to a decision.

Hughes & Luciano Will Drag This Out

Stephanie Luciano has gone to a decision in 6 of her 8 pro fights. In her last 5 fights she has gone to a decision 4 times, 3 decisions, a draw, and a KO win.

Sam Hughes, though always lives for a submission, has also gone to a decision in 4 of her last 5, 4 straight. Sam is a dog, and she can surely win 1 round, and possibly out-dog 2 to a decision victory!

Underdog Slip

The Zeleski/Njokuani fight to go over 10 fight minutes is a number I can get behind. I don’t mind the near + money to go over 2.5 on some books either. Njokuani went to two decisions in 2024, and I believe he will do a good job avoiding a finish early in this fight. Zaleski coming off a KO win, should revert to a longer fight where he had 4 previous fights go to a decision.

Carlos Vera has gone to the 3rd round in 4 of his last 5 fights. He is a fighter that likes to keep range, use kicks to stay on the outside and avoid danger. Josias Musasa, in his UFC debut, has been a KO artist until his Dana White Contender’s series match where he went the distance for a split decision win. I trust the vet Vera to get this thing into the 2nd and I believe he can push past the halfway point!

Waldo Cortez-Acosta averages 66 significant strikes landed per fight. When he goes to a decision, which is a possibility here, he lands 81 significant strikes per minute. He usually gets into the 2nd round averaging 11 fight minutes. Liking him to win, I believe if he gets the decision, we will add up points along the way with his strikes and pressure. I also think he can find a KO in round 2 or 3 here!

Best Bets:

Underdog Slip: (Flex 2.37x/0.93x)
Zaleszki Dos Santos Higher 10.0 Fight Time (Mins)
Musasa Higher 7.5 Fight Time (Mins)
Cortes-Acosta Higher 49.55 Fantasy Points