UFC Fight Night Betting Guide: Best Bets for Bonfim vs. Brown

The UFC returns to the Apex this weekend with an action-packed card headlined by a welterweight showdown between Gabriel Bonfim and Randy Brown. We are looking to keep our UFC hot streak running, and this week looks to have some hungry dogs. Will they get the job done Saturday night?

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Randy Brown vs Gabriel Bonfim

I believe a lot of squares will be on the Bonfim-Bonfim parlay this weekend, and I really want people to hesitate to do that. What has Bonfim shown us up to this point that makes them clear favorites against anyone? Gabriel, the younger brother, has not impressed me at all in recent fights.

Losing by KO/TKO to the same opponent, Randy Brown, who KO’d Nicholas Dalby, was a terrible look. He took Ange Loosa to a decision, submitted Khaos Williams, who has never been high on my board, and is coming off a robbery win over Wonderboy Thompson. Now, some may say all the chatter about the Thompson fight may light a fire under Bonfim for this fight, but I just don’t see it.

We have seen Bonfim gas out time and time again; now Randy Brown, the more experienced UFC fighter with 20 UFC fights, has a chance to show everyone he has another level. This fight won’t be easy, and Bonfim’s path is pretty clear: avoid a KO shot and make this a dirty grappling fight.

Brown has a very solid takedown defense at 73%, the same as Bonfim. Bonfim averages over 3 takedowns per fight, but if he cannot get the takedowns going, I do think Brown can make this dirty when they get inside the clinch. If Bonfim wants to cross the void to attempt a takedown, Brown has the striking accuracy to fend him off. Bonfim had better find a submission; otherwise, Brown can drag this thing out and put Bonfim in compromising positions once tired.

Bet: Randy Brown ML (+150, DraftKings)

Chris Padilla vs. Ismael Bonfim

Chris Padilla might be one of the most underrated underdogs on this card. I know others will be on him, and it is clear from the line movement. We could have grabbed Taco around +165 odds, and he has dropped down to +125.

Perhaps both Bonfim’s pull it off this weekend and playing the dogs wasn’t the right angle, I just believe both have tough matchups and one will find a banana peel, as they have before. Taco is a dog and the Bonfim’s are not. On paper Ismael should dominate this fight, he wins the striking numbers, volume, accuracy, and defense and he has the better takedown accuracy. On the flip side, Taco has the heart of a lion, he averages 1.56 takedowns per fight, and I can see Padilla working to get inside the clinch and press Bonfim against the cage making him uncomfortable.

Padilla looks comfortable everywhere, if you want to brawl, he invites it, if you want to clinch, he will do the dirty work. Padilla is 3-0 in the UFC while Bonfim is 2-2, we just heard Padilla plot out a title run for 2026 and I am going to ride him there. He should have the cardio advantage, and he should have more output.

There is a lot of pressure on Ismael to perform before his brother does and he may try to be too technical here against a grinding machine. Padilla looks like a live dog here!

Bet: Chris Padilla ML (+135, ESPN)

Miles Johns vs. Daniel Marcos

Miles Johns is one of those fighters who’s better than his recent record might suggest. He is coming off two straight losses, and I respect him enough to find a way to get this to the scorecards and win us a split decision.

Miles Johns has the defensive edge in this fight, and I look to him to use that to get him to the scorecards. He absorbs around 1 less strike per minute, while averaging 1.3 takedowns per fight. Johns has had more experience in the UFC and is the younger fighter by 1 year, which I think matters.

Johns carries power in his hands, and he can use combinations to find a KO shot on Marcos, if Marcos allows himself to sit flat footed in front of Johns. I like the wrestling/grappling that Johns can go to when the exchanges on the feet get sloppy. Both are very good at defending takedowns, so we could see this play out completely on the feet.

If Johns can keep distance and pick his spots to enter, he can outpoint and out damage a Daniel Marcos who is still yet to impress me through 5 UFC fights. If Johns did not learn anything from his last two decision losses, then it may be time for him to look at another career. Marco’s is the more technical, but Johns should be the more motivated and hungrier and +176 is too good to pass up, especially a fight likely to see the judges’ scorecards!

Bet: Miles Johns ML (+176, Novig)