UFC Fight Night: Best Bet and Top Prediction for Saturday, February 21

Welcome back, UFC fans and bettors! The UFC heads to Houston, Texas this week, headlined by former champion Sean Strickland, welcoming the challenge from Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez, in what should be an action-packed main event.

This week we’re attacking this article with a data-first approach. Each of these picks aligns with both a measurable statistical advantage and a stylistic difference. Let’s dive into the numbers!

VIP Play: Yadier del Valle to Win in Round 2 or 3 (+190, FanDuel)

Comparing winning in round 1/2 at -110 odds vs round 2/3 at +190 odds is the difference between 1 round. The question we need to answer is, if Yadier gets the victory inside the distance, does it likely happen early or late, and does his opponent have the skill set to survive 5 minutes?

Yadier del Valle is undefeated at 10-0 and normally all gas and no breaks with his aggression. He lands 6.25 significant strikes per minute at 67% accuracy, compared to Jordan Leavitt’s 2.49 strikes per minute. That’s more than double the striking volume, at a higher accuracy.

Leavitt averages 2.92 takedowns per 15 minutes, which is solid, but at just 30% accuracy, he often finds himself searching and struggling for that position. His takedown defense is also at 30%, while del Valle defends at 75% and attempts 3.5 submissions per 15 minutes. What that tells me is we have a chance to see early scrambles and grappling exchanges, hopefully pushing this fight into round 2.

Leavitt’s average fight time is 6:17, while Del Valle’s is 7:12. What I like in this instance is experience on Leavitt’s side. While Leavitt only has 5 more fights under his belt, this will be his ninth UFC fight. That experience SHOULD help him get this past round 1. If he can avoid the bad position and protect his chin, he has a chance to make this a dog fight early.

Lean: Ante Delija Moneyline (-130, Caesars)

Heavyweight fights often come down to a few things, damage differential, control time, or a finishing threat. Ante Delija is 26-7, 19 wins by finish (73% finish rate when he wins) with an average fight time of just 3:01. That right there tells me he already holds a few things in his back pocket. An ability to damage you and finish you!

Serghei Spivac averages nearly 8 minutes per fight and relies heavily on wrestling and controlling cage time. He lands 4.21 takedowns per 15 minutes at 62% accuracy, which is pretty darn elite for heavyweights.

So where does this fight take place? On the feet, or on the ground? Delija lands 4.81 significant strikes per minute while absorbing only 2.65. A fantastic ratio of damage output vs damage received. Spivac lands 3.45 but absorbs 4.25 per minute, practically the opposite of Delija, which can create a significant defensive liability at heavyweight when dealing with power shots.

Delija has more ways to win, and if he can get on the ground and on top, he may be too physical for Spivach to work back to his feet, or to fight from bottom.