UFC Fight Night Abu Dhabi: Odds, Predictions and Best Bets for Saturday, July 26

Welcome back, UFC fans! After coming off Dustin Poirier’s retirement fight at UFC 318, the UFC returns to Abu Dhabi with a stacked Fight Night (Day) card. Headlined by a unique middleweight matchup between former champion Robert Whittaker and former ONE Championship titleholder Reinier de Ridder, this event offers a stylistic matchup of striker vs grappler in what will be must-watch TV! We started giving out articles with a pick for every fight and have had success doing it, so let’s keep with the theme this week!

Saturday, July 11 at 8:35 PM
Nikita Krylov	+116
Robert Whittaker	-120

Main Event: Robert Whittaker vs. Reinier de Ridder (Middleweight)

In the main event, Robert Whittaker makes his return, looking to reassert himself in the title picture after losing in devastating fashion to Chimaev. Known for his elite footwork, crisp striking, and solid defense, Whittaker faces a rare and fast-rising opponent in Reinier de Ridder.

De Ridder, a two-division former champion in ONE Championship, brings a grappling-heavy style to the UFC stage, with a world-class submission game and unorthodox transitions. His striking with his feet leaves much to be desired, but he is one of the top grapplers on this UFC roster.

Even though we just saw Chimaev dominate Whittaker, we must expect a bounce-back from the former champ. Whittaker’s defensive wrestling and scrambling ability could neutralize De Ridder’s offense and force the bout into deeper waters on the feet. Whittaker has an 81% takedown defense and 59% striking defense.

On the other end, De Ridder is massive at 6’4” with a 78” reach, 5” more than Whittaker. De Ridder uses his size well, and he must pressure forward, getting this fight to the clinch and the ground where he will find the most success. It’s a fascinating clash of styles that could have significant implications in the middleweight rankings. Whittaker by KO and De Ridder by Sub is a very good look, u2.5 Rounds at (-105) as both fighters have finishing upside!

Best Bet: Reinier De Ridder (+140)

Petr Yan vs. Marcus McGhee (Bantamweight)

Former bantamweight champion Petr Yan returns looking to make possibly his last push to fight for a belt one more time. Still technically sound and dangerous with his counter-striking, Yan faces rising prospect Marcus McGhee, who has built momentum with power, speed, and an aggressive pace. This fight should show us whether Yan still can hang with the new wave of contenders, or if McGhee is ready to break into the elite tier of the division.

I absolutely love Marcus McGhee, but he has a tough hill to climb. Yan is coming off back-to-back wins over Figueiredo and Yadong, the latter of which is a similar style to McGhee, and we know how dangerous Yadong is. Experience is going to play a big role here. Yan is just 2-3 in his L5 fights, but those three losses came to Sterling, O’Malley, and Dvalishvili, three champions. McGhee has not fought this level of competition yet, and this is probably the fight I am looking forward to the most.

Best Bet: Fight Goes Distance (-250) Parlay Piece (Suggested Use: + Leal ML -150)

Must Sprinkle: Marcus McGhee ML (+325)

Shara Magomedov vs. Marc-André Barriault (Middleweight)

Shara Magomedov is one of the more hyped prospects in the UFC. It’s just too bad we don’t get to see him fight in the USA. We have made a lot of money off Shara thanks to his flashy striking and aggressive style. He draws a tough opponent in Canada’s Marc-André Barriault, who thrives in dirty boxing exchanges and pressure fighting.

Barriault leans on volume striking and damaging you over time. I think we have a clear speed advantage here, and Shara will move in and out of his strikes, utilizing a full arsenal of leg kicks and strikes/elbows. This bout promises fireworks, especially if Shara’s offensive creativity can shine through under the pressure of Barriault’s forward movement.

Best Bet: Shara Magomedov KO (-135) & Shara Spread Parlay Piece (-310)

Asu Almabayev vs. Jose Ochoa (Flyweight)

Asu was taught a very valuable lesson in his light fight against a very dangerous striker in Manel Kape. And while I respect and am a fan of Ochoa, he is stepping up on short notice, and I am not sure he is ready for the type of pressure and grappling Asu will bring.

Asu can find range quickly and strike just enough to set up his takedowns or find a way in the clinch to grapple. He has a variety of strikes he can bring to set up his takedowns to find ground control. Asu is very strong, and he will look to avenge his loss to Kape. I expect some back-and-forth moments, but I do expect Ochoa to fade as the fight goes on and Asu wears him down.

Best Bet: Asu Almabaev ML (-110)

Nikita Krylov vs. Bogdan Guskov (Light Heavyweight)

Two fighters I am not too excited to back with money. I see arguments for both sides, and what I see most is a finish in this fight. Krylov has the upside to find not only a submission, but also a KO, and we just saw Krylov finished by KO, and Guskov hits like a Mack truck. I expect one of these guys to go down, and I don’t believe we’ll see the judges in this fight.

Kylov is looking to bounce back off a KO loss and we just saw Guskov have major holes in his game on the ground. Krylov averages 2 takedowns per fight, and I believe that is his path to victory followed by a vicious ground and pound, or a submission win. If Krylov can get out of the 1st round, he has a chance to mangle Guskov rounds 2 and 3 on the ground.

Best Bet: Krylov Sub/KO (-135) & u2.5 Rounds Parlay Piece (-450)

Featured Prelim: Bryce Mitchell vs. Said Nurmagomedov (Bantamweight)

Bryce Mitchell just won’t quit and is looking to bounce back after another loss. Mitchell has 4 losses in his career, 3 in the UFC, and all of these were vs very tough and dangerous fighters. His 3 losses in UFC are Jean Silva, Josh Emmett, and Ilia Topuria, three guys who can absolutely rock anyone off this planet.

Now he moves down a weight class and will look to dominate with his superior wrestling game. Against some of those previous fighters, he just wasn’t big enough or strong enough to out-wrestle everyone, and if you can’t get the dangerous strikers on the ground, they will hurt you on the feet. Now he has a 2” height advantage and is 3 years younger in age.

Nurmagomedov does not bring the same physicality or striking skills to this matchup as those three who knocked him out. Don’t get me wrong, this Nurmagomedov would much rather strike and kick than wrestle and grapple. Said is the better striker in this matchup, and he uses his range well. I know Bryce is looking to avenge his loss, and I expect him to tactically find his way inside the pocket and get Said down without taking too much damage.

Best Bet: Bryce Mitchell ML (-130)

Carlos Leal vs. Muslim Salikhov (Welterweight)

Carlos Leal brings a dangerous arsenal of power and pressure against an aged 41-year-old who I believe had his swan song in his last two fights. Muslim Salikhov found a way to win his last two fights, but the last time we saw him against someone who has solid striking skills, he was knocked out.

Leal has 22 wins, 11 by TKO, while 3/L4, and 5/L7 fights finished by him winning by KO/TKO. Muslim is tough and has solid striking himself, I can see this pushing past the 1.5 mark, but I believe Leal will damage him too much to see the judges’ decision in this one.

Best Bet: Leal Double Chance KO/SUB (-185) & Leal KO (-150)

Davey Grant vs. Da’Mon Blackshear (Bantamweight)

Davey Grant’s heavy-handed, brawling style meets the slick grappling and unpredictability of Da’Mon Blackshear. If Blackshear is unable to secure a 1st round finish, Grant could start to work on his game and pressure over the next two rounds.

This fight seems to be one of the most polarizing on this card. Half the people like Blackshear, but I think he could be tricky to bust your parlays. He should get it done, but Grant is durable and tough; there could be some live value on Grant if Blackshear doesn’t dominate early.

Best Bet: Fight Goes Distance (-120)

Amanda Ribas vs. Tabatha Ricci (Strawweight)

This all-Brazilian fight features two very different fight styles: Ribas with her fluid striking and movement, and Ricci with her grappling-based control and dogged takedown pursuit. Both women are very popular fighters, and I expect both sides to bring in some betting action.

Ribas has fought the much tougher competition. Also, Ricci looks to have moved away from her grappling-heavy style and looks to stand and strike more. Ribas is the more well-rounded fighter and should be able to get herself out of this losing streak.

Best Bet: Amanda Ribas by Decision (-120) & Fight Goes Distance Parlay Piece (-450)

Ibo Aslan vs. Billy Elekana (Light Heavyweight)

Billy Elekana is looking to bounce back from a submission loss in his first UFC fight. Now he faces Aslan, who does nothing but finish his opponents unless he is getting submitted. Aslan is 14-2 with 14 KO wins and 2 submission losses. Elekana is very inexperienced, and in his 9 career fights, 5 have ended in a finish. Aslan won’t let this see the cards.

Best Bet: Fight Does Not Start 3rd Round (-175)

Mohammad Yahya vs. Steven Nguyen (Featherweight)

Local favorite Mohammad Yahya looks to defend home turf against Contender Series fighter Steven Nguyen. Yahya’s pressure and durability will be tested by Nguyen’s striking technique. I expect Nguyen to use his hands to set up takedown and submission attempts. Nguyen has 4 wins by KO and 3 by Submission, and he is live to find both. Yahya has 2 losses by both KO and Submission, so it’s hard to take one or the other alone here.

Best Bet: Steven Nguyen Double Chance KO/Sub (-115) & Nguyen ML (-400) Parlay Piece

Martin Buday vs. Marcus “Buchecha” Almeida (Heavyweight)

A highly anticipated UFC debut for legendary Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion Marcus Buchecha. Buchecha, who has four finishes in his last five fights, faces the durable Martin Buday. Buday will try to keep it standing, and Buday at +240 is not a bad look, especially against a UFC newcomer. I just love the ability of Buchecha to get fights on the ground and put Buday in danger with multiple submission attempts.

Best Bet: Marcus Buchecha Double Chance KO/Sub (-135) & Buchecha ML (-300) Parlay Piece