After an off week, the UFC returns for a Fight Night in Denver, Colorado, this Saturday. Both bettors and fighters will have to deal with the Denver altitude playing a role in many of the fights this week.
Let's take a look at the card and see what best bets we can place before the fights kick off at 7 PM EST.
Best Bet: Jasmine Jasudavicius ML -105 (BetMGM)
Jasudavicius will welcome top prospect Fatima Kline to the UFC this week. Kline is on a week's notice after original opponent Viviane Araujo pulled out for an undisclosed reason.
Kline's tape checks out as she has excellent grappling and has shown that she can throw her hands well. Outside of her being on short notice, I worry about her inexperience at 125. Out of her 6 MMA bouts, only one was at Flyweight, and it was against a smaller opponent who was also on short notice.
Jasudavicius already has a bigger frame for the division and is coming off a win at 135, where her wrestling really shined. With Kline showing that she leans more on her grappling, I think she has a hard time since this is clearly a major step up in competition for her.
I see the more experienced Jasudavicius making this one ugly as the fight goes longer, using her fast pace to drain Kline early before her wrestling takes over late.
Best Prop: Abdul Razak Alhassan vs. Cody Brundage to Start Rd 2. -126 (FanDuel)
My hardcore MMA fans are probably making a funny face at this one. Hear me out.
The game plan is almost too obvious not to follow for Brundage here. All of Razak Alhassan's wins have been by TKO, so his opponents have opted to grapple with him to avoid his power. As a result, he's been taken down 16 times in his last 5 fights.
Brundage has a wrestling background, so he should be doing the same. From there, these two could both slow down dramatically after one or two scrambles.
Although we have to count on Brundage to stick to a game plan, I can't pass on a playable start round 2 price with early grappling expected.
Top Parlay: Christian Rodriguez ML AND Gabriel Bonfim ML -106 (DraftKings)
This week's ML parlay will feature two heavy favorites on the card. Both have shown well-rounded skills and may have inferior opponents in front of them on Saturday.
For Rodriguez, he's had a strange start to his career. Most of his fights have featured heavy grappling, being best known for pausing the Raul Rosas Jr. hype train.
He'll take on UFC vet Julian Erosa. I'll almost fade Erosa every time since he's built a reputation for getting hit often. He's been dropped countless times and has 8 TKO losses on his record.
Erosa isn't a bad fighter and could be live the longer this one goes, but fading guys who have poor striking defense and questionable chins will always be the right move in this sport.
Rodriguez’s striking has looked good enough to get the job done here and I wouldn't be shocked if he further secured rounds with his wrestling when needed.
Our second leg will feature Gabriel Bonfim, who is coming off the first defeat of his career. Bonfim appeared to be in control of that fight until gassing late in the second round.
The Denver altitude this week may be concerning, but I'd argue that his opponent will not be looking to push a fast pace for us to see a repeat of his last fight.
Ange Lossa does a lot of things well, but nothing great. He can be patient with his striking, so I see an aggressive Bonfim taking advantage of the low volume from his opponent. If he's able to get his grappling going as well, I think he'd be in a good spot to find a finish at some point.
Best Bet: Jean Silva ML -105 (BetMGM)
I'm hopping on the Jean Silva hype train this weekend. I have some reservations about him moving up to 155, but he has the frame and power to compete in the division, so I'm willing to take him at almost even money against Drew Dober.
Dober has been in some high-output striking affairs, both giving and taking damage for the majority of his UFC tenure. Because of his fight style, there's an argument to be made that his mileage may be getting high. Still, he's a tough out and will have the cardio advantage since he trains locally in Denver.
However, if Silva is conscious of his gas tank, I see his counterstriking scoring well against Dober's brawling style. Even if Dober drags this into deep waters, Silva could be fighting with a lead at that point. I can see the Brazilian both stopping a hittable Dober, or earning a close decision win based on damage.
