The Paramount+ era is still rolling after 3 great cards to start. Now, we have a BMF title on the line as Max Holloway and Charles Oliveira face off for the second time in their illustrious careers. This should be a fun one, so make sure to tune in.
Today, I will break down my 3 favorite bets for this weekend’s fight card. Let’s get into it!
| Saturday, July 11 at 7:40 PM | |
| Adrian Yanez | ![]() -395 |
| Cody Garbrandt | ![]() +340 |
Cody Garbrandt (14-7) vs Lon Xiao (27-10)
I am very excited about this fight mainly because of both fighters’ ability on their feet. Garbrandt is known for his insane speed and boxing, and Xiao is known to really push the pace and throw a ton of strikes.
However, both of these guys are open to getting KO’d, so we may see some fireworks here. Neither of these guys has much success in their last few fights, with Garbrandt coming in on a 2-fight skid and Xiao losing 2 of his last 3, which has been his whole career in the UFC. Both of these guys are likely fighting to keep their careers in the UFC alive at this point, so I think we will see some motivated fighters in the final prelim bout.
I really think Garbrandt should have the advantage here. It is always risky taking him in a bet since he has a glass chin, but his stand-up game and quickness should be too much to handle. Xiao is going to come out and push the pace so Cody may be able to catch him with some good counter punching and get him beat up early. Give me the vet to get it done.
MY PICK: Cody Garbrandt +136
Caio Borralho (17-2) vs Renier de Ridder (21-3)
Jumping straight to the Co-Main event, we have a bout between two guys coming off brutal losses. RDR stormed into the UFC on a 4-fight win streak before Brendan Allen stopped him in his tracks. Caio was on a 7-fight win streak before he ran into Nassourdine Imavo. Now, both guys will be looking to bounce back and stay in contention for the belt.
I love Caio in this fight. We saw him have a really close fight with Imavov, who is a top-flight contender. On the other hand, RDR got absolutely dominated by Brendan Allen. Allen gassed him and broke him eventually, as he couldn’t utilize his grappling too well.
I think Caio has a much better skill set on the feet and has enough on the grappling side to be able to keep RDR from dominating the positions. I think Caio wins a hard-fought decision.
MY PICK: Caio Borralho by Decision +110
| Saturday, July 11 at 11:20 PM | |
| Conor McGregor | ![]() +240 |
| Max Holloway | ![]() -260 |
Max Holloway (27-8) vs Charles Oliveira (36-11)
Here we go! We have another battle for the BMF title on the line between Max Holloway and Charles Oliviera. Both guys are absolute legends of the UFC at this point and this will be a rematch from their first fight back in 2015, where we saw one of the weirder stoppages in UFC history, leading to a Holloway win. Both of these guys are coming into this fight after bouncing back from KO losses to Ilia Topuria, so we should be in for a fun one.
We all know Charles has the advantage in grappling, but the question is whether he can use it. Holloway is a seasoned champion and has only been submitted once in his career, in 2012 by Dustin Poirier.
I’d say most likely, being that this is for the BMF, these guys are going to stand and bang and if that is the case, Holloway has the advantage. I think that this fight will go a bit further than many people expect. While I doubt it goes all 5 rounds, I think we take the Over 3.5 for good value.
MY PICK: Fight to go over 3.5 Rounds -110
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