UFC 319 Predictions: Live Odds and Best Bets for Saturday, August 16

Another PPV event is back as news broke earlier this week about the new $7 billion UFC + Paramount deal. What the new deal offers to us fight fans is that it is expected to remove PPV events for the 2026 season and beyond. UFC 319 is a stacked card headlined by a middleweight title fight that has had fans debating for months.

From championship gold on the line to exciting matchups in nearly every weight class, UFC 319 blends proven veterans with dangerous contenders on the rise. Expect fast starts, incredible battles, and the kind of highlight finishes that could prove this the best card of the 2025 season!

Middleweight Title Fight: Dricus Du Plessis vs Khamzat Chimaev

Dricus Du Plessis comes into this fight riding a wave of momentum as the reigning champion, on a nine-fight active streak, currently the 3rd longest ever in the division. DDP has showcased an unorthodox yet highly effective style that combines pressure striking with sneaky grappling transitions. He’s known as a finisher as he has finished 20 of his 23 wins, 9 by KO, 11 by Sub, proving he’s dangerous everywhere.

Khamzat Chimaev enters unbeaten in his UFC career, with a high finish rate of over 90% and a smothering wrestling style that breaks opponents mentally and physically. In his current 8-fight win streak, he has taken down every one of his opponents in the first round.

Many fans debate his cardio. I do not think he has any cardio issues, even if he gets tired, I trust him to keep pushing forward as this is his chance to capitalize what has been brewing for years, his chance at gold. This fight will likely come down to whether Du Plessis can keep the distance, control the pace, and drag this thing to deep waters, or if Chimaev can drag it into the kind of grind where he’s at his most dominant.

Best Bet: Khamzat Chimaev Double Chance Submission/Decision (-130)

Featherweight: Lerone Murphy vs Aaron Pico

Lerone Murphy remains undefeated in his professional career, 16-0, behind a crisp boxing style combined with strong defensive awareness. He’s proven difficult to hit cleanly, often frustrating aggressive opponents. Lerone has had a very solid run over his last 3 fights beating very strong opponents Josh Emmet, Dan Ige, Edson Barboza.

Murphy is a decision merchant, going to the judges scorecards six out of his last seven fights. Murphy averages over 10 significant strikes more per round than his opponents, landing 79% of his strikes from distance while holding a 65% striking defense.

Welcome to the UFC Aaron Pico! Pico is a powerhouse coming over from PFL, boasting elite wrestling credentials and incredibly powerful striking that has led to multiple knockout victories. Pico is an all-American wrestler, who should look to implement that side of his game, rather than exchanging strikes with Murphy. Pico can rip powerful body shots, while moving in and out of the pocket with ease.

Murphy has been touched in his last few fights, but has weathered the storm each time. While Murphy thrives at range with precision striking, Pico’s best chance lies in mixing his wrestling with explosive combinations. This is a tough fight to pick as I see strengths in both sides, but backing PFL fighters has not been a profitable endeavor recently.

Best Bet: Aaron Pico Double Chance KO/Decision (-135)

Welterweight: Geoff Neal vs Carlos Prates

Geoff Neal brings a wealth of UFC experience and a track record of competing against some of the division’s best. One fighter I do not like to go against as he is known for his sharp southpaw boxing, knockout power, and durability.

Neal has finished 10 of his 16 wins by KO/TKO. Perhaps one of Neal’s faults is he is strictly targeting head shots 86% of the time while putting 8% to the body and 6% to the legs. Fun fact, Neal has never been finished in the UFC.

Where I think Carlos Prates can shine here is he attacks you everywhere. Landing body shots at 66%, leg kicks at 80% and targets the head in 54% of his strikes. I believe Prate’s dangerous Muay Thai style and relentless pressure will help him find a vicious KO, or a decision win over a very very durable Neal. If Neal can keep the fight at mid-range and time his counters, he could find some success, but Prates’ volume and pressure could test his defensive durability over 3 rounds.

Best Bet: Carlos Prates by Decision (+240)

Middleweight: Jared Cannonier vs Michael Page

Jared Cannonier is one of the most physically imposing middleweights, with knockout wins across three weight classes in his career. He carries fight-ending power in both hands and has excellent takedown defense. If those don’t remember, Cannonier once fought at heavyweight, and his path to victory is smothering MVP, pressing him against the cage, and dogging this fight out for three rounds. His age is glaring at 41 years old with 26 professional fights, he was losing his last fight before finding a late KO, prior to the he lost to two very good fighters in Borralho and Imavov.

Michael “Venom” Page came over from Bellator and has had some success with wins over Kevin Holland and Shara Magomedov in his last fight. I have never been super high on MVP as I do believe the right style can neutralize what he brings to the cage. MVP has a flashy, unpredictable striking style built on range management, quick entries, and highlight-reel finishes.

Cannonier will look to pressure and cut the cage, while Page will aim to frustrate him with movement and counterstrikes. This could be a classic battle of power versus precision. I have to lean with the ability of MVP to not get touched, while winning the striking match over 3 rounds, sometimes UFC lines are worth taking straight vs risking a parlay!

Best Bet: MVP ML (-185)

Flyweight: Tim Elliott vs Kai Asakura

Tim Elliott is a gritty veteran known for his scrambling ability and awkward striking angles. He’s fought the best in the division and brings relentless pace over three rounds. He gets a tough test here as he has been out of the octagon since December 9, 2023. With all this time off, already at 38 years old, with 35 professional fights, his fight age is like 75 years old.

Now he faces a dangerous and hungry Kai Asakura who was thrown into the UFC fire to fight Alexandre Pantoja getting a title fight in his UFC debut, something we never see. Asakura made the jump from Japan’s top promotion Rizin, and he is a sharp striker with deceptive knockout power for flyweight.

Asakura can rip shots to the body and he has a vicious knee that he can land to the body. If Elliott can create chaos and force scrambles, he can wear down Asakura who hasn’t been tested at the UFC level enough, but the newcomer’s clean technique, counters, and strike timing could lead to big moments.

Best Bet: Kai Asakura -3.5 (-145)

Featured Prelim – Middleweight: Gerald Meerschaert vs Michal Oleksiejczuk

Gerald Meerschaert is one of the UFC’s most prolific submission artists, holding the record for most submission wins in middleweight history. His path to victory is clear, drag the fight to the mat and hunt for a finish. He comes in on a two fight losing streak and has never lost 3 in a row. Now 37 years old, another fighter who is more like 75 in fight years with FIFTY-SIX professional fights. Father time catches up to everyone and this may be the time GM3 finally loses three in a row.

Michal Oleksiejczuk is a dangerous striker who often starts fast and looks to overwhelm opponents early. I have not had the most confidence in him in the past but as those who know, he has been training with the fighting nerds for his past two fight camps, showing he cares about improving and taking the next step.

My main concern with this play here is Michal has been submitted an astounding six times, something he will absolutely have to protect against here. Submissions are usually easier to get to than knockouts, but all Michal has to do is tough GM3 a couplet times just right and he may go down here. This matchup is the classic grappler vs striker dynamic, where Meerschaert will need to survive the early storm to have his best chance of victory.

Best Bets: Michal Oleksiejczuk by KO (-115) & Fight Not Go Parlay Piece