UFC 318: Best Bets and Full Fighter Breakdown for Holloway vs Poirier 3

The BMF title is on the line in a historic rubber match between two of the UFC’s most beloved warriors. Max Holloway vs Dustin Poirier 3 headlines, which has been discussed as a pretty mediocre card. With 14 fights on this card, it is one of the most jam-packed cards this year.

Live on Saturday night from Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, Louisiana, the early prelims kick off the night at 6 pm EST, while the main card is set to start at 10 pm EST. Let’s break down the Main Card, Featured Prelims, and Early Prelims with our best bets and betting insights for each matchup.

MAIN CARD BREAKDOWN

Max Holloway vs Dustin Poirier

Division: Lightweight – BMF Title Fight

• Holloway: 26-8-0 | 12 KO, 2 Sub | 59% UFC Finish Rate
• Poirier: 30-9-0 | 16 KO, 7 Sub | 68% UFC Finish Rate

Holloway enters the trilogy surely with a chip on his shoulder, will he lose 3 times to his second fighter? Betting against Poirier in his last fight at home with everyone behind him is a tough position. And though for their careers, I believe Poirier is the better, well-rounded fighter that also hits much harder, Holloway still has something left to give.

This is a stat most probably don’t know, but Ilia Topuria has 9 UFC wins, 7 of those fighters have gone on to win their next fight, and Holloway has yet to fight after losing. Yes, Poirier has never lost two fights in a row, but he is now 38 years old, and we have seen stars fade at the end of their career in this sport time and time again. I’ll back the fighter who still has a chance to fight for a title one more time.

Best Bet: Max Holloway ML (-122, Novig)

Paulo Costa vs Roman Kopylov

Division: Middleweight

• Costa: 14-4-0 | 11 KO, 1 Sub | 66% UFC Finish Rate
• Kopylov: 14-3-0 | 12 KO, 0 Sub | 83% UFC Finish Rate

Going against Roman could be a death sentence here as he is a lethal striker, and Costa has just not looked the same in his last handful of fights. Having said that, Costa has maybe this last chance to show he has something left for this sport. He has fought the much tougher level of opponents over their last 5 fights, so comparing each of their opponents is tough to do.

Kopylov has some impressive wins and I do expect this to be a war for two to three rounds, but with almost +200 odds in the market to back Costa to avenge his back-to-back losses is too good of a price to pass up. I like Costa’s ability to press forward and pressure Kopylov, neutralizing his kicking game he likes to use.

Best Bet: Paulo Costa ML (+198, Novig)

Kevin Holland vs Daniel Rodriguez

Division: Welterweight

• Holland: 28-13-0 | 13 KO, 10 Sub | 73% UFC Finish Rate
• Rodriguez: 19-5-0 | 9 KO, 4 Sub | 44% UFC Finish Rate

After watching Holland’s last fight, I believe he can keep it going vs a very durable DRod. Holland’s length, speed, and unorthodox striking should give DRod problems. Rodriguez has been too hittable in recent fights and struggles with rangy fighters who can move in and out of the pocket. Holland also has underrated submission skills if this hits the mat and could also be dangerous on the feet.

I kept looking at Holland to win inside the distance, and while I do think it could hit, DRod has only been finished in two fights. I do believe the safer play is Holland as a parlay piece but if you want to take him to win by Sub/KO I believe it is a decent look as he usually finishes his fights when his hand is raised.

Best Bet: Kevin Holland ML (Parlay Piece, -500)

Dan Ige vs Patricio Freire

Division: Featherweight

• Ige: 19-9-0 | 7 KO, 5 Sub | 54% UFC Finish Rate
• Freire: 36-8-0 | 13 KO, 11 Sub | 0% UFC Finish Rate

Continuing to fade PFL/Bellator fighters has been a profitable position. Freire is a legend outside of the UFC, but he also came to the UFC a little to late in hiss career. Now he gets another killer who has never been finished in his career. “50k” Ige is the bigger, stronger featherweight here, with better cardio and chin.

Ige is coming off an impressive KO win over a much taller Woodson. Freire who looked hesitant in his UFC debut, I expect to give a better performance. I believe this does go the distance and an over rounds prop play is a good look here as well. I expect Ige to pressure, land the cleaner shots, and bank 2 of 3 rounds.

Best Bet: Dan Ige by Decision (+110, Bet365)

Daniel Zellhuber vs Michael Johnson

Division: Lightweight

• Zellhuber: 15-2-0 | 7 KO, 3 Sub | 33% UFC Finish Rate
• Johnson: 24-19-0 | 10 KO, 2 Sub | 40% UFC Finish Rate

Johnson is always dangerous early but fades against young, technical fighters with reach and composure. Zellhuber checks all those boxes. I expect a big bounce back from Zellhuber following a loss to a very good Robovics. I believe he could take lessons from that split decision loss and make sure he finds a finish in this one, taking it out of the judges hands.

Johnson will be tough to finish no doubt, but I believe Zellhuber is one of the safest parlay pieces this week. I don’t expect an early finish here as Zellhubers last 5 fights have seen later rounds, but he has 10 finishes on his record and Johnson has been subbed 9 times while being knocked out 3 times. Zellhuber’s safest play is the parlay but inside the distance or double chance is a good look for the price!

Best Bet: Zellhuber KO/Sub Double Chance (-115, Bet365) & Parlay Piece

FEATURED PRELIMS

Kyler Phillips vs Vinicius Oliveira

Division: Bantamweight

Oliveira brings big power and relentless pace, and if he can stay upright, he has the striking edge. Philips does have a path to victory in this fight, but I’ve seen him make too many mistakes. Those mistakes could be costly against someone like Oliviera who thrives on exploiting a weak spot and taking advantage.

Oliviera is good everywhere and word is he is training with Carlos Prates sharpening his game even more. I expect this fight to go to the third round as both fighters tend to go deeper into fights. Oliviera should have the advantage in rounds 2 and 3 as he starts to pour on the damage. Philips is 3-0 in PPV events, it’s time to take that first L.

Best Bet: Vinicius Oliveira ML (-144, Novig)

Brendan Allen vs Marvin Vettori

Division: Middleweight

Vettori is as tough as they come but hasn’t evolved and looks like the same fighter every time out. Now he is dealing with a personal tragedy that deserves everyone’s prayers, and with a heavy heart, he has a tough opponent. These two have bad blood and Allen is coming off two tough losses to very good opponents.

I expect Allen’s grappling, slick striking, and ability to weather the storm to get back in the win column. I can’t predict a finish in this fight on either side as both are durable and good at avoiding the big damage. I can’t imagine Allen losing three fights in a row, especially being the more active fighter.

Best Bet: Brendan Allen by Decision (+105, Bet365) & Parlay Piece

Francisco Prado vs Nikolay Veretennikov

Division: Welterweight

Prado is the much younger fighter by 12 years, and is coming off back-to-back losses to Jake Matthews and Daniel Zellhuber, two very solid fighters. If Prado can get this to the ground, that could be a huge advantage for him. Nikolay is much better on the feet, but his defense is lacking both in the stand up and avoiding takedowns.

Nikolay has a 48% striking defense and a 57% takedown defense. Prado is the better striker who hits harder and is better skilled all around. Prado is not the best fighter on the UFC roster and he has holes himself. He is the pick, but I would not hammer or put him in parlays.

Best Bet: Francisco Parado ML (-134, Novig)

Ateba Gautier vs Robert Valentin

Division: Middleweight

These are two high-action finishers with questionable gas tanks. Whether it’s a KO or club-and-sub, I expect violence in the first two rounds. Gautier is live to find a KO on Valentin, but Valentin does bring the weapon of submission into this fight and with Gautier not being an experienced fighter yet, he could make a mistake on the big stage.

It’s not going to be easy for Gautier to find a clean kill shot on Valentin and if Valentin can get this to the ground, he has 7 wins by submission in his career. Two volatile fighters, I’d rather be on a total in this fight than taking a side. Gautier should find a KO here, but we’ve seen the studs get humbled before.

Best Bet: Fight Does Not Start Round 3 (-250, DraftKings) Parlay Piece

EARLY PRELIMS

Islam Dulatov vs Adam Fugitt

Division: Welterweight

Dulatov is a wrecking ball early, and Fugitt is too hittable. A perfect pairing for a quick finish. Pairing the ML with the under boosts the value. Dulatov is tough to parlay at his -700 odds and 11 of his 12 fights have ended under 1.5 rounds, 6 straight ending in the 1st round. 3 of Fugitts last 5 fights have ended u1.5.

Dulatov has 7 KOs and 4 submissions, finishing all of his fights he won. Fugitt is tough and I do think he will weather a couple storms early, but Dulatov should be relentless here and the UFC wants to showcase his talents on a bright PPV card stage.

Best Bet: Dulatov ML + u1.5 Rounds (-155, DraftKings)

Jimmy Crute vs Marcin Prachnio

Division: Light Heavyweight

Putting money behind Crute is a risky endeavor in itself. He is so hard to trust, but he has not won a fight since October 2020, and I know he is hungry for a finish. His return in February saw a draw against Bellato and he looked like he still had something left to give to the sport. UFC gave him a winnable fight here so if he loses this he really should retire.

Prachnio has won 2 of his last 5 fights, and is returning to the ring after losing by sub almost 1 year ago. Crute averages 4 takedowns per fight, and I do believe he will get it there and inflict enough damage to find a win inside the distance. Prachnio has 5 UFC losses by finish, Crute has been expressive in wanting to find the finish and this could be the fight if he plays his energy expenditure right.

Best Bet: Crute KO/Sub Double Chance (-120, Bet365) & Parlay Piece

Ryan Spann vs Lukasz Brzeski

Division: Heavyweight

Spann’s finishing upside is massive here. His first round win at +170 is a very interesting look as he will be more dangerous in rounds 1 and 2, than in round 3. Neither of these guys are super skilled and both have extreme holes in their game.

Brzeski is a fighter who could easily not be on the UFC roster as he is not UFC caliber talent. He is hittable and vulnerable on the ground. Spann can finish both by submission or by KO and I do think he finds a way to damage Brzeski early here. Spanns inside the distance/double chance is juicy, just play the parlay piece.

Best Bet: Spann KO/Sub Double Chance (-190, Bet365) & Parlay Piece

Brunno Ferreira vs Jackson McVey

Division: Middleweight

Ferreira is all gas, no breaks and he hits like a mack truck. He had an opponent change and now gets a UFC newcomer who can grapple but has no striking game. McVey won’t be able to handle the speed and power of Ferreira. A first-round finish is likely, as both fighters are finishers.

McVey is long but I don’t see him catching Ferreira with a submission here. Ferreira is much more experienced with 6 UFC Fights. He lost two of those fights, getting better after each loss. McVery at 6-0 has not tasted defeat yet and this is a big step up asking him to cut weight twice in recent weeks. Ferreira’s KO/Sub double chance is -400, may as well parlay his ML at that point!

Best Bet: Ferreira KO (-138, Bet365)

Carli Judice vs Nicole Callari

Division: Flyweight

Judice has the more polished striking and better gas tank. If she avoids the ground early, she should pick Callari apart over three rounds. Calari can be dangerous if this hits the mat as she has 3 submissions by win. Judice should be able to keep distance with striking and kicking volume and I believe she will outpoint Callari to a decision win.

Best Bet: Judice by Decision (-115, DraftKings)