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UFC 311 Betting Guide: Odds, Predictions, and 3 Best Bets for Saturday, January 18

Top Flight Wagers
January 16, 2025
UFC 311 Betting Guide Odds, Predictions, and 3 Best Bets

UFC PPVs are back in 2025, and we have a fantastic card on deck! This is definitely going to be a heavy Russian/Dagestan featured event, we kick off the night there, and end the night there!

We need to wash our hands quickly of the last event, because what could have gone wrong, mostly did! Having said that, we have turned a profit in 11 of our last 14 UFC cards, and I look to do even better over the next 15 cards! I have my picks locked in, so let's get to some of my favorite ones!

Money Wants That Money!

Renato Moicano has been exceptional to watch grind out wins in his last few fights. He clearly is motivated to reach the top, where the money is the biggest. He cares a lot about his fights, he wears it on his sleeve, and I believe he truly has his eye on his current opponent and never looks past them. He is someone I have learned to trust over time.

Especially as big of a favorite as he is here, I think it should be more. Beniel Dariush is one of my favorite fighters from past years, but I believe he has one foot out the door, and he is coming off 2 brutal losses. Moicano has the advantage on the feet and I believe he is going to handle things on the ground as well.

He may have a tough time getting things to the ground, but I do believe over 3 rounds, his toughness will get the best of Dariush in this one. He has clear motivation in this fight, and we will see if he can keep his run going.

Parlay of the Night

Grant Dawson’s game plan here should be to get inside of Diego's reach and latch onto him for 3 straight rounds. Of course, we need to be weary of Grant Dawson getting chinned by Diego Ferreira, but I just don’t see it. Dawson is determined to keep stacking wins, he has a sharp fighting IQ, and he will find a way to get his arms, and legs, wrapped around Diego. Rebecki took Diego down 4 times and I expect Dawson to find it as well.

Umar is going to have to fend off Merab for 5 straight rounds. I think he can and will do just that. We saw how he made Corey Sandhagen look non-existent in his fight and if Merab cannot get on the back of Umar and ride him for 5 rounds, he could be in trouble on the scorecards.

I expect Umar to win on the feet using both kicks and his hands. I also expect when they get into grappling exchanges, Umar, and his training with team Khabib/Islam will be the difference here. I keep hearing people say Umar hasn’t seen anyone like Merab in the late rounds…um Umar trains with 2 of the best MMA tacticians this sport has ever seen, he will be fine with Merab’s style!

We Will See a Decision!

It is very hard for me to find a place where one of these guys will finish the other. I fully expect a 5-round war between Islam Makhachev and Arman Tsarukyan. I do expect Islam to come away victorious somehow, and I warn people of playing some of these guys in parlays.

I trust Islam, but this may be his toughest fight yet and we saw him have glimpses of struggle in his last 2 fights with Porier and Volk. Arman is much better the 2nd time around and he also has the revenge factor.

We are going to see insane grappling exchanges, we will probably see both escape dangerous positions and I am very confident we will see these two in rounds 4 and 5. Someone is going to win this by control time, takedowns, and damage, and I think it's going to be much closer than a -370 ML favorite suggests!

Best Bets (3):

Straight: Renato Moicano ML (-155) BetRivers

Parlay: Umar Nurmagomedov + Grant Dawson (-111) MGM

Rounds Prop: Tsarukyan / Makhachev Goes Distance (-145) Bet365

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