A stacked UFC 305 card takes place in the land down under this week! A highly anticipated Middleweight matchup headlines the Australian card when champion Dricus Du Plessis takes on former long-time champ Israel Adesanya.
Eleven other matchups lead up to the main event, so let's check out some best bets to place before the fights kick off Saturday at 6:30 PM EST. Best of luck, fight fans!
Top Prop: Stewart Nicoll vs. Jesus Aguilar FGTD -130 (FanDuel)
Flyweights kick off the card this week when top prospect Stewart Nicoll makes his UFC debut against Jesus Aguilar. Nicoll's grappling has looked good against lesser talent, but I don't expect Aguilar to roll over for him, especially early.
Aguilar has had some UFC experience with top grapplers and seems to welcome fights that hit the mat. I expect Aguilar to have moments in this fight, even though he's a moderate underdog.
Nicoll will have to prove that he can strike at this level, and he may look tentative on the feet due to his inexperience. I think we see a mix of inactivity with grappling exchanges in what could be a close decision win for either fighter.
Luana Santos ML -144
I'm not sure where Casey O'Neill will have an advantage in this fight besides a slight edge in striking. O'Neill had a quick rise, starting 9-0 before dropping her last two. It seems that she hasn't bounced back from her torn ACL, while her opponent carries positive momentum.
Santos has gotten off to a 3-0 start in the UFC and will make a quick turnaround after submitting Mariya Agapova in July. She has a judo background, and half of her 8 wins have come by sub. I think she uses her grappling again to be successful against the struggling O'Neill.
O'Neill is coming off a submission loss, and she's no stranger to being taken down. The Australian will need to out-volume Santos on the feet to win, but Santos should take advantage of any wild exchanges with timely takedown attempts. Santos' striking has also improved the more we see her, so I see the Brazilian securing a late sub or decision win.
Top Parlay: Jack Jenkins ML AND Steve Erceg ML -123 (DraftKings)
The line rightfully blew up for Jack Jenkins this week. He takes on a struggling Herbert Burns, who has been stopped in his last three. Burns is a legit submission threat, but he hasn't responded well to being hit and his injury history is starting to pile up.
This is a showcase matchup for Jenkins. His grappling has looked good enough to fight off this version of Burns, so I expect Jenkins to keep this standing to punish Burns with his combinations. Take Jenkins by finish if you want to push this parlay to plus money, but his ML is most likely the safest option to anchor any parlay on your betting card this week.
Steve Erceg proved that he's legit in his championship showing earlier this year, coming one round short of beating current champ Alexandre Pantoja. There are almost no holes in Erceg's game. He has great technical boxing to go along with his wrestling background. He'll be the bigger fighter in his matchup with Kai Kara-France, and I think that'll be the difference since he'll have the grappling edge.
Kai Kara-France has a balanced skill set of his own, but he's lost back-to-back fights, and I'm not the biggest fan of him taking 14 months off due to concussions. I see Erceg scoring on the feet early before he gets his grappling going late. If so, he should coast to a decision win in front of his hometown crowd.
Main Event Play: Israel Adesanya ML -110
Our long-awaited main event is a pick 'em this week, and I couldn't be more excited to see these two finally face off. Because Adesanya is unquestionably the better striker of the two, I have to take the former champ to regain his belt.
Du Plessis carries a ton of power at 185 and has bulldozed through his opponents using his grappling and power shots. However, he's yet to face a striker with the length that Adesanya posseses.
Du Plessis has gotten away with his reckless advances, lunging with his head high in the air to either attempt takedowns or get in boxing range. I can't see a fight where Adesanya doesn't take advantage of this to land damaging shots on Du Plessis.
If Adesanya can weather some early storms and defend takedowns, I think he lands enough damage to slow Du Plessis down late. From there, this should turn into a kickboxing match, and we all know who should have the advantage there. I see Adesanya controlling the distance well en route to a trademark decision win.
